After a thrilling overtime finish in Game 1, the Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets run it back on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Denver erased an early 15-point deficit to force overtime and win 112-110 on Saturday. In this +300 SGP, I’m backing the Nuggets to at least keep things close with prop bets on Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray.
Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets playoff SGP predictions for Game 2 on April 21.
Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions
Parlay: Nuggets +8.5 | Leonard 2+ threes | Murray under 19.5 points (+300)
Nuggets +8.5 (-400): Backing the Nuggets at home in the postseason — or in general — is a pretty safe bet.
- Denver is 15-4 SU in the playoffs since the 2022-23 season, covering a +8.5 spread in 18 of 19 games.
- It went 26-15 SU at home during the regular season, covering a +8.5 spread in 33 of 41 games.
Los Angeles looked like the better team on Saturday — holding Denver to a collective 43.6 FG% — but it still lost. That’s a bad sign for the road team.
The Clippers have failed to cover this number in all five games against the Nuggets this season (Saturday included), going 1-3 straight up at Ball Arena.
NBA SGP legs
Leonard 2+ threes (-200): I love the value of adding this leg to the parlay. Leonard wasn’t active from deep in Game 1 (1-for-3 shooting), but I’m not worried about that.
The Claw was on fire from 3-point land to close out the regular season, averaging 2.5 makes on 46.3% shooting in the final 10 games. In that span, he went 9-1 against this line.
Denver struggled to defend the arc all season, allowing opponents to shoot 36.5% from deep (24th in the NBA).
Murray under 19.5 points (-121): Murray has cleared this line in four of his last five games against the Clippers, but I believe some regression is coming.
- The Canadian PG never scored more than 22 points in those contests.
- Murray scored 21 points on 35.0% shooting in Game 1 (ended regulation with 19 points).
Murray takes 44% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 88th percentile of all NBA players, according to Cleaning the Glass. L.A. had the fifth-best mid-range defence in the NBA (42.1%).
The Clippers also held opposing point guards to the seventh-fewest PPG this season, per Fantasy Pros.
Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions made at 11:05 a.m. ET 04/21/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.