The Battle of Ontario renews in the Stanley Cup playoffs as the Toronto Maple Leafs take on the Ottawa Senators.
The pregame narrative: Toronto won the Atlantic division, setting up a date with its provincial rival. In this Maple Leafs Battle of Ontario SGP, I’m backing the Buds to win, the over on the game total, and Matthew Knies to deliver a point.
Check out my Maple Leafs Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP predictions for April 20.
Maple Leafs Battle of Ontario Game 1 SGP predictions
Toronto moneyline | Over 5.5 goals | Knies to score 1+ points (+285)
Maple Leafs moneyline (-159): Toronto struggled mightily against Ottawa this past season.
The Maple Leafs lost all three meetings to the Senators, marking five consecutive losses to the Sens. Four of those contests have been decided by two-plus goals, meaning Ottawa has managed to win convincingly.
But the playoffs are a different beast entirely, and those backing Toronto will be looking to throw all that in the past.
The Maple Leafs profile as the more well-rounded squad. Toronto ranked:
- 7th in goals per game (3.26)
- 8th in goals against per game (2.79)
- 2nd in team save percentage (.926)
Ottawa didn’t finish the season top 10 in any of the above categories, and doesn’t have the same high-end talent as Toronto.
Expect a statement from Auston Matthews and company in Game 1.
NHL SGP legs
Over 5.5 goals (-110): Offensive outputs typically dip in the postseason, but I expect plenty of fireworks in Game 1 of this series.
The Senators were one of the highest-scoring teams at the end of the regular season. Ottawa eclipsed this total in five consecutive games, averaging eight combined goals per outing.
Additionally, the game total has gone over this mark in three of the last five matchups between these two Ontario teams.
Toronto boasts elite offensive star power, but it also has an unproven goaltending tandem. Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll were excellent in the regular season, but the two have eight playoff appearances combined.
It wouldn’t be shocking if the Maple Leafs struggle to receive consistent goaltending in the playoffs.
Knies to score 1+ points (-137): If there’s going to be lots of offences, Knies will likely be playing a key part in it.
The young winger has become an integral part of Toronto’s offensive attack. He finished fifth on the Leafs with 58 points this past season and ended the campaign in fine form.
Knies has a point in five of his last eight games, including a trio of multi-point performances.
Playing on the power play with Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander certainly helps his chances of scoring a point.
Maple Leafs Battle of Ontario SGP predictions made at 1:35 p.m. ET 04/19/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.