On the first day of the NBA playoffs, I’m targeting a trio of prop bets from the four-game slate.
The pregame narrative: Kawhi Leonard has been on fire for weeks, and he’s worth backing on his points prop against the Denver Nuggets. I’m also taking the over on Donte DiVincenzo‘s 3s prop and fading Jalen Duren.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 19.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Leonard over 24.5 points (-122)
How long will Leonard be at the top of his game? I’m not sure, but I’ll ride the wave while I can.
Leonard has only played 51.1% of regular-season games over the past eight seasons. His injury woes are well-documented … but so are his on-court accolades.
And right now, we’re seeing a version of The Claw that should put the rest of the playoff field on notice.
Check out how Leonard performed in the final 15 games of the year:
- 26.5 PPG
- 55.2 FG%
- 49.3 3PT%
- 84.7 FT%
Also of note is the fact that Leonard played 42-plus minutes in back-to-back games to close out the season. He hadn’t done that since April 2023.
If you’re spooked by Leonard’s lengthy injury history, maybe steer clear of the Clippers on the NBA Finals futures market. But taking things one game at a time, Leonard is a player to target.
Leonard didn’t face Denver during the season, but the Nuggets allowed the sixth-most points to opposing small forwards, per Betting Pros.
Key stat: Leonard has 20-plus points in 15 consecutive games, cashing this bet in 10 of those matchups.
Best NBA picks
DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes (+114): A toe sprain caused DiVincenzo to miss almost six weeks of action this season, but he’s been excellent since returning in late February.
Over his final 22 games, the former Knick put on a clinic from 3-point range:
- 44.7 3PT%
- 2+ threes in 20 of 22
- 3+ threes in 15 of 22
In his first game post-injury, DiVincenzo went 3-for-6 from deep against the Los Angeles Lakers, who he’ll face on Saturday night.
The Minnesota Timberwolves run through Anthony Edwards, obviously, but DiVincenzo has been crushing it off the bench and looks like a bargain in this market.
Duren under 22.5 points/rebounds (-110): The Detroit Pistons went 3-1 against the New York Knicks this season, but Duren didn’t do much to help the cause.
- In four games against the Knicks, Duren averaged 11.3 points and 7.8 rebounds (19.1 PR).
- Duren finished below 22.5 PR in 3 of 4 games. In the lone exception, he was a perfect 9-for-9 from the field.
Throughout the season, Duren averaged 11.8 points and 10.3 rebounds (22.1 PR), so this number is just a whisker above his average. And given how tough the matchup is, I think the under is the play.
The Knicks allow the third-fewest points and the fewest rebounds to opposing centres.
NBA prop picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.