The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners begin a three-game set at Rogers Centre on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis gets the ball for Toronto, and I’m fading his alt strikeout total against the red-hot Mariners. Also, bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit for power against Seattle righty Bryan Woo.
Check out my +350 SGP Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for April 18.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions
SGP: Mariners +2.5 | Francis under 5.5 strikeouts | Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+325)
Mariners +2.5 (-500): Toronto has enjoyed a good but not great start to the season, posting an 11-8 record ahead of its 20th game.
That said, I feel perfectly safe backing the Mariners to cover this teased-up spread.
- Seattle has won six of its last seven games while averaging 6.3 runs.
- Toronto has only covered a -2.5 spread in five of 19 games (three times in nine games at home).
Francis was a revelation for the Blue Jays down the stretch last year, but he’s failed to reproduce that magic through three starts.
The righty has a 3.71 ERA, but his 12th-percentile xERA (6.01) suggests he’s been a bit lucky. Francis also owns a 21st-percentile xBA (.282) and 12th-percentile hard-hit rate (52.2%). I don’t trust him to keep Seattle’s red-hot bats at bay.
Woo, meanwhile, has posted a solid 2.83 ERA with a nearly identical 2.85 xERA. The Mariners have covered a +2.5 spread in nine of his last 10 starts dating back to 2024.
MLB SGP legs
Francis under 5.5 strikeouts (-225): Francis has a knack for pitching deep into ballgames, and that will naturally help him accumulate strikeouts.
But the righty has never been an elite swing-and-miss arm:
- 2024: 22.5% K rate (46th percentile), 21.2% whiff rate (15th percentile)
- 2025: 21.7% K rate (47th percentile), 24.6% whiff rate (44th percentile)
Francis relies on producing soft contact to succeed, and he hasn’t been getting that this year. With the way Seattle is hitting the ball, I can anticipate a short outing on the horizon.
And if Francis isn’t pitching six-plus innings, I doubt he’s going to clear this total.
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+123): Adding Guerrero to this wager skyrockets our SGP’s value from -150 to +325. Not bad, right?
Vladdy is “slumping” to start the season, but he’s still hitting .292 and giving quality at-bats. The problem has been a lack of power, though I’m hoping Guerrero’s first home run on Wednesday will open the floodgates.
And the slugger’s 95th-percentile xBA (.334) and 82nd-percentile xSLG (.535) indicate he should be performing better, anyway.
We’re talking about a guy who had the sixth-most total bases in MLB last year. Guerrero should be an auto-play at this price, even against a pitcher like Woo.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.