The Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat on Friday night for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s winner will likely get waxed by the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round, but we don’t need to worry about that right now. In this +270 SGP, I think two lesser-known players, Georges Niang and Davion Mitchell, are worth backing on milestone props.
Check out my Heat vs. Hawks play-in SGP predictions for April 19.
Heat vs. Hawks predictions
Parlay: Over 214.5 points | Niang 2+ threes | Mitchell 6+ assists (+270)
Over 214.5 points (-180): The Hawks hit a lot of overs, and doing so at this number really shouldn’t be a problem.
- Overs are 26-14-0 (65.0%) in Atlanta’s home games this year, per Team Rankings. That’s the highest rate in the NBA.
- The Hawks play at the fastest pace of any home team in the NBA (104.20 possessions per game).
- This over has cashed in 35 of Atlanta’s past 36 games, dating back to Jan. 30.
The only time the Hawks failed to hit this point total since Jan. 30 was a 98-86 win over the Heat on Feb. 24. But I view that as a complete anomaly.
Since last April, overs are 4-1 in head-to-head matchups between these teams. Also, overs are 5-1 in Miami’s past six games overall.
NBA SGP legs
Niang 2+ threes (-167): Niang was the least exciting asset in this year’s deadline deal that saw Caris LeVert and De’Andre Hunter trade places. But he still plays a valuable role.
Coming off the bench for about 23 minutes per night, Niang shot the lights out from 3-point range for the Hawks in the regular season:
- 41.3 3PT%
- 2.7 makes/game
- 6.6 attempts/game
- 2+ threes in 21 of 28 games
Niang went under this milestone with 1-for-4 shooting from deep in Atlanta’s first play-in game. The Hawks were a miserable 4-for-21 (19.0%) from 3-point range in that matchup.
But Niang’s broader body of work with his new team is stellar, and I think he deserves enough looks on Friday to cash this bet.
Mitchell 6+ assists (-150): Mitchell doesn’t typically start for the Heat, but he still plays plenty of minutes and is relied upon to run the offence for significant stretches.
Take Wednesday’s play-in game, for example. Coming off the bench, Mitchell played 33 minutes and had nine assists.
In 11 games prior, Mitchell averaged 32.6 minutes and 6.8 assists despite only making one start.
My hope is that Atlanta pushes the pace to an extent where Mitchell gets a ton of assist opportunities. He has cashed this bet in two of three games against the Hawks since joining the Heat
Heat vs. Hawks predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET 04/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.