The Battle of Ontario is renewed on Sunday when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators.
The pregame narrative: Ottawa has had Toronto’s number this season, but I think the Maple Leafs win Game 1 in regulation. William Nylander has elevated to an elite goalscorer this season, and I expect him to score.
Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for Game 1 of the opening round.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks
Best Bet: Nylander to score (+140)
Toronto’s playoff shortcomings are tied to offensive ineptitude — the team has scored two or fewer goals in 13 of its last 14 postseason games — but Nylander has done his part.
In the last two seasons, he has seven goals and 13 points in 15 playoff games.
I expect the Maple Leafs’ offence to perform better as a whole this time around, and for Nylander to lead the charge.
Shutting down the Matthew Knies-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner line will be priority No. 1 for the Senators. In theory, that should leave more opportunities for Nylander to feast.
And that’s what he’s done all season.
The Swede’s 45 goals were second only to Leon Draisaitl, and 33 of those came at even-strength.
Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark has been great down the stretch, but I seriously question his ability in the playoffs. The netminder has a 3.59 GAA and .859 SV% in 10 playoff appearances (nine starts).
Key stat: Nylander’s 125 goals over the last three seasons rank seventh in the NHL.
Quick picks
Sanderson over 2.5 shots on goal (+140): Toronto has the fourth-worst 5v5 Corsi rate in the NHL, according to Natural Stat Trick. That means it gives up a lot more chances than it takes.
That might sound concerning, but the Leafs allow the 12th-fewest high-danger chances per 60, meaning most shots on net are low-quality and coming from the outside or at the point.
Enter Jake Sanderson, who is having a banner season.
The 22-year-old defenceman leads the team in time on ice (24:26), is third in points (57), and second in shots (195).
Sanderson has logged at least two shots in 10 straight games, clearing this line seven times.
Maple Leafs 60-minute moneyline (+107): An Ullmark implosion would go a long way in cashing this wager, but I can see the Maple Leafs winning this game in regulation even if he plays well.
For a good as Ullmark has played, Anthony Stolarz has been better.
- 8-0 record since March 20 (three shutouts)
- 1.40 GAA
- .950 SV%
The Maple Leafs won six of those games in regulation and four by multiple goals. Ottawa didn’t have a single player play at a 35-goal pace this season, and I struggle to see how it will find ways to score against a netminder this hot.
And for those worried about Toronto scoring in the playoffs, don’t be.
The Leafs ranked seventh in goals per game (3.25) this season while the Sens ranked 21st (2.90). Something’s got to give, and I say it starts on Sunday.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks made at 3:02 p.m. ET 04/18/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.