Bobby Witt Jr. is on a roll right now, and I think he can keep that going on Thursday night against the Detroit Tigers.
The pregame narrative: Witt is an elite hitter who also possesses top-tier speed, and that combo makes him a compelling play to score a run. I’m also taking the over on Taj Bradley‘s strikeouts prop and fading Griffin Canning in the same market.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 17.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Canning under 4.5 strikeouts (-118)
Canning isn’t a flashy guy to have a bet on, but don’t let the lack of brand recognition get in the way of a logical fade.
A perennial back-of-rotation starter, Canning used to at least hover around the 9.0 K/9 rate on an annual basis. But he dipped to a 6.8 K/9 last year, and I’m not confident in him to bump the rate back up.
Canning is trying to simplify things in 2025, cutting the curveball out of his arsenal and sticking to a three-pitch mix. His fastball has below-average velocity (93.3 mph, versus 94.5 mph as the MLB average for righties).
His slider is his out pitch, and he’s throwing it more than 40.0% of the time, per Baseball Savant.
But given that the St. Louis Cardinals — tonight’s opponent — have the fourth-lowest whiff rate on sliders (27.9%), I doubt we’ll see him rack up strikeouts.
St. Louis also has the fifth-lowest K rate in the majors (19.5%). Five consecutive starters have gone under 4.5 Ks against the Cardinals.
Expect Canning to be the sixth.
Key stat: Since the start of last season, Canning has gone under 4.5 Ks in 23 of 34 starts (67.6%).
Best MLB picks
Bradley over 6.5 Ks (-118): Three starts into 2025, Bradley has deployed a balanced attack from the mound, and it’s been effective.
- All four of his pitches have a whiff rate between 25.0% and 28.6%. That means none of them have been elite, but each of them (four-seamer, cutter, splitter, curveball) can be called upon based on feel.
- Bradley has exactly seven Ks in all three starts.
- His 30.9% K rate ranks in the 84th percentile.
I’m not blown away by Bradley’s pitch metrics, but I am inclined to back him in a plus matchup against the free-swinging New York Yankees.
The Yankees have the sixth-highest K rate (24.6%) and the third-highest whiff rate (28.3%) in MLB.
Bradley struck out seven over 6.0 innings when he faced the Yankees at home a season ago.
Witt over 0.5 runs (+100): Witt is really, really good. Let’s start there.
Last year’s AL MVP runner-up ranks in the 99th percentile in xBA (.349) and 95th percentile in xwOBA (.423).
So far this season, Witt is batting .310 and currently owns a nine-game hit streak. He has also scored in eight of his past 13 games.
What really pushes this pick over the line for me is Witt’s history against Detroit Tigers starter Reese Olson:
- 6-for-11 (.545)
- 4 extra-base hits (2 HRs)
- .926 xSLG
- 99.5 mph average exit velocity
MLB prop picks made at 11:31 a.m. ET on 04/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.