Spencer Strider makes his 2025 season debut Wednesday afternoon in a rubber match between the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays.
The pregame narrative: You never know what you’ll get out of a pitcher coming off an extended injury absence, but Strider has shown plenty of positives in his rehab outings. I’m eyeing a pair of hitter prop bets, though, backing Austin Riley and fading Alejandro Kirk.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 16.
Blue Jays picks vs. Braves
Best Bet: Riley over 1.5 bases (+105)
Riley is on a heater, and this is a solid price to back him at.
The third baseman is 4-for-8 at Rogers Centre in this series, and three of those hits left the yard.
He’s now riding an eight-game hitting streak, featuring some truly gaudy numbers:
- 16-for-35 (.457)
- 1.358 OPS
- 7 extra-base hits
- 2+ bases in 7 of 8
Riley is 3-for-11 with a homer against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt, which equates to a .545 SLG. His contact quality has clearly been good in this matchup, as Baseball Savant grades him at a .600 xSLG.
Key stat: Riley ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in xSLG (.593), average exit velocity (93.8 mph) and barrel rate (22.9%).
Quick pick
Kirk under 0.5 hits (+140): Kirk might not contribute much to Strider’s strikeout total, but I think he has a fair chance of going hitless on Wednesday.
Kirk ranks in the 37th percentile in xBA (.233) and in the 25th percentile in xSLG (.331). He’s been hitless in six of 13 starts.
As a right-hitting player, Kirk will have Strider’s elite slider running away from him. In 2023, that slider generated a 55.3% whiff rate (third among all pitches that year).
Strider has held righties to a .188 BA in his career.
Braves vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:13 a.m. ET on 04/16/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.