The Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks fight to keep their seasons alive on Wednesday night in the Western Conference’s 9-vs-10 matchup of the NBA play-in tournament.
The pregame narrative: Dallas has been injury-riddled for most of the past few weeks, and I’d rather not mess around with picking a side tonight. Instead, this +310 SGP has milestone prop bets for Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Dereck Lively.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Kings SGP predictions for April 16.
Mavericks vs. Kings predictions
Parlay: Sabonis 6+ assists | LaVine 3+ threes | Lively under 5.5 rebounds (+310)
Sabonis 6+ assists (-175): The best passing big man in the NBA is Nikola Jokic, but Sabonis isn’t that far off.
And for a guy who averages 6.0 assists on the season, this is a mark I expect Sabonis to hit based on the matchup.
- Dallas allows the seventh-most assists per game to opposing centres, per Betting Pros.
- Sabonis has 7+ assists vs. Dallas in four straight matchups (since March 2024).
- This season, Sabonis has 6+ assists in 39 of 70 games (55.7%).
With De’Aaron Fox traded away and Malik Monk ruled out, Sabonis is the clear-cut No. 1 option to facilitate offence for the Kings.
NBA SGP legs
LaVine 3+ threes (-182): If Sabonis is doing his job as a passer, LaVine will hopefully be on the receiving end of some good looks.
And he deserves them.
LaVine is on fire from 3-point range over his past 10 games:
- 51.9 3PT%
- 4.0 makes
- 7.7 attempts
- 3+ threes in six straight
The Mavericks tend not to allow a ton of 3-point attempts, but who am I to fly in the face of this hot streak?
Even if the volume isn’t always high, Dallas does allow the 12th-highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (36.3). LaVine went 4-for-5 from deep against the Mavs when he last faced them on March 3.
Lively under 5.5 rebounds (-150): Lively missed 36 games this season with an ankle injury, and his production since returning at the start of this month hasn’t been very encouraging.
The second-year centre has gone under 5.5 rebounds in three of four games. He played fewer than 20 minutes in each of those matchups.
At 7-foot-1, Lively will be the tallest player on the court tonight. But his minutes seem to be capped, and he’s competing against a pair of truly elite rebounders (Sabonis, Anthony Davis).
Lively ranks 17th in offensive rebounding rate (12.2%), but the Kings have the second-highest defensive rebounding rate in the NBA.
Mavericks vs. Kings predictions made at 11:24 a.m. ET 04/16/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.