For the first time in nearly two weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays are back home at Rogers Centre with the Atlanta Braves in town.
The pregame narrative: Toronto starter Easton Lucas has been strong through two outings, but I’m backing a pair of Braves sluggers — Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson — to deal some damage on Monday night. On the Jays’ side, I think Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s bases prop is in the fade zone.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 14.
Blue Jays picks vs. Braves
Best Bet: Ozuna over 0.5 runs (-118)
I thought about backing Ozuna over 1.5 bases at a slightly better price (-106), but his sky-high walk rate steered me in a different direction.
Ozuna’s league-leading walk rate (24.6%) is unsustainable, but he has demonstrated better plate discipline than we’ve ever seen from him before.
So far this season — and I get that it’s early — Ozuna has a 17.5% chase rate, which ranks in the 96th percentile according to Baseball Savant. His previous season high is 26.0% back in 2021.
All of that is to say, walks are a risk for potentially backing Ozuna’s bases prop. But a free pass wouldn’t be the worst thing for his run prop.
And let’s not forget that he can still really mash the baseball.
- 98th percentile average EV (95.6 mph)
- 86th percentile hard-hit rate (53.1%)
Through 15 games, Ozuna has a .306/.477/.531 slash line. He has scored nine runs so far this month, cashing his run prop in seven of 10 games.
Oh, and he happens to be a particularly elite slugger when facing left-handed pitching, as he will tonight with Lucas on the mound.
Key stat: Since 2023, Ozuna’s 156 wRC+ against LHPs ranks 10th among 128 qualified hitters.
Quick picks
Olson over 0.5 RBI (+145): This pick will hopefully go hand-in-hand with my Ozuna best bet.
Ozuna bats third in the Braves’ order, and Olson is right behind him in the cleanup spot. As a result, Olson has seen a lot of RBI opportunities so far this season.
- Olson’s 23 plate appearances with runners in scoring position is tied for the ninth-most in MLB.
- Despite only posting a .617 OPS in his past nine games, Olson has eight RBI in that span.
A lefty-on-lefty matchup shouldn’t bother Olson too much, as he still owns an .801 OPS in his career against southpaws.
As for Lucas, his very early returns with a platoon “advantage” have been rough: 48 plate appearances, .884 OPS allowed.
Guerrero under 1.5 bases (-130): The power outage is real for Vlad Jr. right now.
I cashed Guerrero over 1.5 bases yesterday, but only because he collected a pair of singles. Guerrero is batting .302 with a .365 SLG so far, which is almost difficult to do.
The $500 million man is still homer-less on the year and only has one extra-base knock in his past nine games.
Atlanta starter Grant Holmes has issued eight walks through two starts, which could be a way for Vladdy to get on without needing to power up.
He’ll break out at some point, but this is a fair price to buy into the fade.
Braves vs. Blue Jays picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 04/14/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.