In what is already their sixth matchup of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday at Camden Yards.
The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still looking for his first big blast, but he remains a value play on his bases prop. I also love the price on Adley Rutschman to go over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI in today’s matinee.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles for April 13.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
Best Bet: Rutschman over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-110)
I’m trying to make sense of this price, and I can’t.
Rutschman’s numbers against Toronto starter Jose Berrios are too good for me to pass this up.
- 15-for-25 (.600)
- 4 home runs
- 2 doubles
- 2 walks
- .846 xSLG
On Opening Day, Rutschman was one of the players who gave Berrios the most trouble. The star catcher went 2-for-3 against Berrios with a first-inning HR.
Rutschman walks a lot, which isn’t necessarily the worst thing for this prop because it still gives him a chance to score. He also rarely strikes out, and his contact quality is elite.
According to Baseball Savant, Rutschman ranks in the 86th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, whiff rate, chase rate and squared-up rate.
Key stat: Rutschman, who homered on Saturday against the Blue Jays, is riding a seven-game hitting streak.
Quick pick
Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (+100): Despite still sitting at zero HRs on the season, Guerrero has cashed this bases prop in eight of 15 games.
Is today the day he really gets ahold of one?
Maybe, but either way, I’ll gladly back him at this price against a left-handed pitcher — especially since it’s one he’s done damage against in the past.
- Since 2023, Guerrero has a 142 wRC+ against LHPs (20th in MLB in that span).
- Against Baltimore southpaw Cade Povich, Guerrero is 4-for-5 with two doubles and a home run.
Povich got absolutely toasted his first two turns through the rotation: 10.1 innings, 17 hits, seven runs.
This should be a smash spot for Vlad Jr.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 04/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.