The Toronto Blue Jays embark on the third leg of their road trip on Friday night with a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles.
The pregame narrative: Baltimore sits in last place in the AL East, while Toronto is tied for first. Who had that on their 2025 bingo card? For tonight’s game, I’m interested in plus-money plays on Gunnar Henderson and Bo Bichette.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles for April 11.
Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles
Best bet: Henderson over 1.5 bases (+105)
Henderson began the year on the injured list with a muscle strain. His results so far — 4-for-25 (.160), one double and 10 strikeouts — suggest he’s still in spring training mode.
But look closer, and you’ll see that Henderson isn’t too far from raking again.
Last year’s fourth-place AL MVP finisher has been tattooing the ball … he’s just not finding holes.
Of his 15 balls in play so far, 10 have registered an exit velocity greater than 100 mph, per Baseball Savant. And sure, not all of them were hit on a line, but he’s had his share of those as well.
Hitting the ball hard is the first step. And based on what we saw from the 24-year-old last season, it tells me that strong results loom just around the corner.
Last year, Henderson slugged .529 and went over 1.5 bases in 79 of 159 games. This isn’t a price you would’ve seen for him very often.
So I’ll buy in now, at a time when he’s facing a pitcher he’s at least done a bit of damage against.
Key stat: Henderson is 2-for-5 with a double against Toronto’s Bowden Francis.
Prop predictions
Bichette over 0.5 runs (+115): A power outage from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander has dampened Bichette’s scoring numbers this month, but I don’t expect that to go on forever.
Despite reaching base 12 times in April, Bichette has only scored once. He also has seven RBI this month. That’s a very atypical run-to-RBI ratio for a leadoff man.
Bichette ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG and K%. He’s doing his job, and that’s the most important thing.
On March 30, Bichette walked and scored in the first inning against Baltimore’s Tomoyuki Sugano, who he’ll see again tonight.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET on 04/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.