I’ve got a trio of bases props in my crosshairs for Friday’s MLB action.
The pregame narrative: Spencer Torkelson and Manny Machado are both off to great starts that I expect to continue tonight. And though it hasn’t been as smooth of a ride for Spencer Steer, his matchup is a compelling one to target, too.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 11.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Torkelson over 1.5 bases (+140)
Torkelson is swinging a very hot bat, and I think he can take advantage of tonight’s matchup against an inexperienced pitcher.
Twins starter David Festa, who tossed 64.1 innings as a rookie last season, is back in the majors to make his 2025 debut on Friday. He began the year with Triple-A St. Paul, allowing 13 hits and six runs in 8.1 IP.
Minnesota’s Target Field might not be the first park you think of as an offensive haven, but it’s a place hitters are known to rake.
According to Baseball Savant, Target Field ranks 8% above average (or greater) in doubles, triples and home runs.
Festa certainly knows the perils of pitching at Target Field. Last season, he allowed an .863 OPS in eight games at home.
Torkelson hasn’t had the pleasure of facing Festa yet, but at this price, I’ll ride with a guy who has a 1.037 OPS so far while posting an 87th-percentile hard-hit rate (55.2%).
Key stat: Torkelson has gone over 1.5 bases in seven of 12 games so far.
Best MLB picks
Steer over 1.5 bases (+128): If you only look at how Steer’s season has gone so far, this pick would be a tough sell.
The designated hitter and corner outfielder is batting 5-for-35 (.143) with three extra-base hits through 10 games. That’s certainly not ideal.
But I’m a big fan of tonight’s matchup given that it comes with a platoon advantage, in an offence-friendly environment, against a pitcher Steer has crushed in the past.
- The right-hitting Steer has a .455 SLG in his career against left-handed pitching.
- Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark is 6% above average in run production and 27% above average in home run rate, per Baseball Savant.
- Against Pirates lefty Bailey Falter, Steer is 7-for-13 with two doubles and a home run. Also, Falter has allowed 14 hits in 10.0 innings to start the year.
Machado over 1.5 bases (+112): I’m loving this price for Machado, who has a clean .340/.400/.500 slash line through 13 games.
Machado has cashed this bet in three straight, as well as in eight of 13 games on the year.
He has also seen plenty of at-bats against Rockies starter German Marquez and should be a threat to do serious damage from the No. 3 spot in the Padres’ order.
Against Marquez, Machado is 12-for-29 with a double and a home run.
MLB prop picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 04/11/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.