I’m backing one player per side to drive in a run in Wednesday’s Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox matchup.
The pregame narrative: Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander have both gotten used to batting with traffic on the basepaths, and I expect them to see some RBI opportunities tonight. At notable plus-money prices, I think both sluggers have value in this market.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 9.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Best bet: Bregman over 0.5 RBI (+145)
Bregman doesn’t have very encouraging numbers against Toronto starter Kevin Gausman (2-for-12, one home run, six strikeouts). But there are some other aspects of tonight’s matchup that I really like.
For one thing, Bregman is seeing tons of RBI opportunities right now — and he’s making the most of them.
- The third baseman is tied for 10th in MLB in plate appearances with runners on base (28).
- In those PAs, he has a .357/.357/.714 slash line with 10 RBI.
Bregman bats third for Boston, and the two guys ahead of him have done well to get on base against Gausman. So there should be more RBI chances for Bregman tonight.
Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers are a combined 16-for-49 (.327) with 10 doubles and two walks against Gausman.
Even Boston’s No. 9 hitter, Ceddanne Rafaela, is in a groove. He has a .458 on-base percentage so far this month and will hopefully roll the lineup over successfully on Wednesday.
With all the potential for traffic on the basepaths, I’m buying Bregman’s opportunity over his head-to-head results with Gausman.
And hey, a sacrifice fly would do the trick, too.
Key stat: In 26 career games at Fenway Park, Bregman has 22 RBI and a blistering 1.194 OPS.
Prop predictions
Santander over 0.5 RBI (+162): This pick follows a similar formula to the Bregman one, but it’s not exactly the same.
Santander hasn’t been clutch whatsoever with runners on base, batting just .148 with zero extra-base hits in that situation.
But the opportunities from the No. 3 spot in the Blue Jays’ order have been bountiful. Santander has 32 PAs with runners on, which is tied for the fourth-most in the majors.
So, again, I’m buying Santander’s opportunity over anything else.
He’s been okay against Boston starter Tanner Houck, batting 4-for-14 (.286) with two walks.
And the two guys ahead of Santander, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., are a combined 8-for-24 (.333) with two doubles and two walks against Houck.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks made at 4:08 p.m. ET on 04/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.