I’ve got one prop pick from both of Wednesday’s Champions League quarterfinal games.
The pregame narrative: Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski is one of the game’s greatest strikers, and PSG’s Goncalo Ramos is hoping to be next up. I’m betting Lewandowski to score against Borussia Dortmund and am fading Ramos against Aston Villa.
Check out the best Champions League prop picks for the games on April 9.
Champions League prop picks
Go to full Champions League betting markets.
Best Bet: Lewandowski to score (-108)
Lewandowski became a superstar at Borussia Dortmund, and then tormented them for years as a member of Bayern Munich.
Now, he faces his old club yet again with Barcelona and is ready to inflict more pain.
The 36-year-old striker is still scoring at an elite rate across all competitions:
- 25 goals in 29 La Liga games
- 9 goals in 10 Champions League games
- 3 goals in 4 Copa del Rey games
Lewandowski ranks in the 99th percentile for non-penalty xG per 90 (0.70), according to FBRef. That is compared against his positional peers in the Big 5 Leagues, UCL and over the last year. Erling Haaland (0.70) also sits in the 99th percentile, for reference.
There is no reason to believe he’ll slow down against BVB, which is conceding 1.53 goals per game in the Bundesliga.
Key stat: Lewandowski has 27 goals in 27 matches against Borussia Dortmund.
Quick pick
Ramos under 1.5 SOT (-148): Ramos will need a decade-plus of elite productivity to reach Lewandowski’s level – but the 23-year-old has turned heads this season.
Ramos has 14 goals in 30 games (13 starts) for PSG. The Portuguese national has been one of the most productive players on a 90-minute basis in this tournament, per FotMob:
- 1.16 xG per 90 (first)
- 1.48 goals per 90 (second)
- 2.5 shots on target per 90 (second)
- 4.5 shots per 90 (eighth)
So why am I fading him? Well, Ramos isn’t expected to start as Luis Enrique prefers to use Ousman Dembele as a false nine.
If Ramos doesn’t see the pitch, this bet will void. If he does play, it will be in limited minutes, and clearing this wager will be a tall order.
He has only cleared this line in two of 17 games where he hasn’t started.
Champions League prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. on 04/08/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.