Two of the brightest stars from the March Madness Final Four are the spotlight for my national championship prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Florida Gators guard Walter Clayton Jr. has been at his best in clutch moments, and I expect him to continue scoring despite Monday’s exceptionally tough matchup. On the Houston Cougars’ side, LJ Cryer will likely need a big night from 3-point range to give his team a chance.
Check out the best Florida vs. Houston prop picks for the 2025 NCAA college basketball national championship on April 7.
Florida vs. Houston prop picks
Best Bet: Clayton over 19.5 points (-118)
Is it square to bet on Florida’s star player to clear his point total? Maybe.
But how can you look at this line and not want the over?
Clayton has had a hell of a season, and he’s pulling out his best performances when it matters most. He scored a season-high 34 points in Saturday’s Final Four victory over Auburn, setting up an epic clash with Houston for the national title.
The Cougars have the No. 1 scoring defence in NCAA Division I (58.5 PPG), which helps explain why Clayton’s point total is this low amid his heater.
And obviously they’re going to do their best to hound the senior guard. I’m just not sure it’ll matter.
Clayton has proven during this tourney run that he can hit open shots. He can also hit off-platform 3s over well-positioned defenders.
And when all else fails, he has the speed and shiftiness to finish at the rim — or draw contact and put his 87.1% free throw percentage to good use.
Based on his production in the past 10 games, I really like him to cash this bet:
- 23.0 PPG
- 46.4 3PT%
- 87.9 FT%
- 20+ points in 8 of 10
Key stat: Clayton has scored 30-plus points in back-to-back games. He’s the first NCAA tournament player to do that in the Elite Eight or later since Larry Bird in 1979 (per Fox Sports).
Best March Madness props
Cryer over 2.5 threes (-118): Houston’s comeback against Duke wouldn’t have been possible without Cryer, who was ablaze from 3-point range.
The fifth-year guard shot 6-for-9 from deep, and he certainly has the chops to put up another productive night on Monday.
- Since the start of February, Cryer has 3+ threes in 13 of 19 games.
- On the season, Cryer has averaged 3.1 threes on 7.2 attempts (42.7 3PT%).
- This is his third year in a row leading the Big 12 in 3PT%.
Florida boasts a stellar perimeter defence, allowing just a 29.5 3PT% (sixth in D-I). But each of its past three opponents has had a player cash this bet, and Cryer should be next up.
Florida vs. Houston prop picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 04/07/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.