The Champions League kicks off quarterfinal action on Tuesday with the first leg between Arsenal and Real Madrid.
The pregame narrative: These teams have a ton of combined firepower, so I’ll back both to score in this +310 SGP, which also includes picks on Bukayo Saka and Vinicius Junior.
Check out my Arsenal vs. Real Madrid SGP predictions for April 8.
Arsenal/Real Madrid boost: Bet on +226 offer featuring Kylian Mbappe
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid predictions
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Parlay: Both teams to score | Saka over 1.5 shots | Vinicius over 0.5 SOT (+310)
Both teams to score (-105): Real Madrid’s squad is brimming with talent, especially on the offensive end.
Take a look at their offensive stats in the Champions League, per FotMob:
- 2nd in xG (26.7)
- 3rd in chances (46)
- 3rd in shots on target (6.8/match)
Despite all that, it’s actually Arsenal who scores more goals per game (2.5). That ranks second behind Barcelona.
This bet has cashed in 12 of Los Blancos’ last 15 matches. During that time, their games have finished with an average of 3.33 goals.
Real Madrid also conceded in 14 of those contests.
On the other side, Arsenal has Saka back, which is a huge plus for their offence. The side has scored three goals in total in the two games since his return. This bet cashed in both contests.
Champions League SGP legs
Saka over 1.5 shots (-286): Speaking of Saka, the Englishman was very reliable against this line before getting injured.
The last time he played a full 90 minutes was Dec. 14. Before that, the winger had cleared this line in 19 of 25 matches across all competitions this season.
This past weekend, he played a full half against Everton and cleared this line with two shots in his limited minutes.
Manager Mikel Arteta said Saka is in a “much better place” after back-to-back stints of increased playing time.
The hope is that Arsenal’s best player worked his way back into the starting lineup on Tuesday. At the very least, Saka will have a half or more of soccer to clear this modest total.
Vinicius over 0.5 SOT (-137): This line doesn’t make much sense to me.
- Vinicius has appeared in two matches so far in April, totalling 12 shot attempts (seven on target).
- Overall, he’s cleared this total in 14 of his last 20 matches.
As mentioned earlier, Real Madrid ranks third in shots on target, and Vinicius joins Kylian Mbappe to make up arguably the most threatening forward partnership in the sport.
Mbappe carries a -315 price tag to record a shot on target. I’d rather go with the Brazilian at a much more reasonable price.
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid predictions made at 10:26 a.m. on 04/07/25.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.