After sweeping a different NL East opponent last week, the Toronto Blue Jays are at risk of being on the wrong end of the broom against the New York Mets.
The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis gets the ball for Toronto, and I like him to at least keep things tight at the halfway mark. My three-leg parlay also features prop bets on Francisco Lindor and Anthony Santander.
Check out my +350 SGP Blue Jays vs. Mets predictions for April 6.
Blue Jays vs. Mets predictions
SGP: Blue Jays +0.5 – F5 | Lindor over 0.5 hits | Santander under 1.5 bases (+350)
Blue Jays +0.5 – first five innings (-137): Francis took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Mets last year, and then disaster struck.
He coughed up a home run to the first batter of that final frame, and Toronto unravelled from there in a 6-2 loss.
Let’s not worry about the late innings in Francis’ rematch against the Mets. I’m a big fan of this F5 wager that’ll cash as long as Toronto is tied or ahead at the halfway mark.
If you follow Toronto, you know that Francis was the best story from an underperforming team down the stretch in 2024. He joined the rotation full time on Aug. 7 and posted a 1.53 ERA (with a .121 opponent BA) in his final nine outings.
Tack on Francis’ 2025 debut, and the Jays are 8-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in his past 10 starts.
The Mets are only 3-5-0 on the F5 moneyline so far this year, according to OddsShark. The Jays are 6-3-0.
MLB SGP legs
Lindor over 0.5 hits (-186): Anyone remember who broke up Francis’ no-no last year? That’s right, it was Lindor.
Though he’s off to a whisper-quiet start in 2025, Lindor is a solid candidate to notch a hit on Sunday.
New York’s leadoff man has a hit in four straight games — including a double in back-to-back matchups against Toronto
Francis had a 5.4% walk rate last year, which ranked in the 89th percentile, per Baseball Savant. And he only had a league-average K rate (22.5%, 46th percentile).
Lindor should be able to put the ball in play, and from the top of the order, I think he can find grass at least once.
Santander under 1.5 bases (-250): Like Lindor, Santander is off to a disappointing start this season.
The 44-homer man from a year ago has just one extra-base hit — a double — through nine games with the Jays.
It’s extremely early, but the batted-ball metrics aren’t painting an encouraging picture (percentile rankings in parentheses):
- .199 xBA (24th)
- .281 xSLG (18th)
- 4.0% barrel rate (26th)
- 24.0% hard-hit rate (12th)
The switch-hitter is 1-for-6 with a single and a strikeout against Mets left-hander David Peterson. It could be another grind of a day for the corner outfielder.
Blue Jays vs. Mets predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 04/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.