Alex Ovechkin just needs one more. His quest to stand alone as the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer could end on Sunday against the New York Islanders.
The pregame narrative: Ovechkin potted two goals on Friday night at home against the Chicago Blackhawks, bringing his career goal total (894) even with Wayne Gretzky. Is today the day Ovi passes the Great One for good?
Check out our Alex Ovechkin goal odds for the April 6 matchup vs. the Islanders.
Alex Ovechkin goal odds
Gretzky’s 894 career NHL goals came in 1,487 games.
Ovechkin, sitting at 894 career goals as well, can set the record on Sunday in his 1,487th game.
That’s only possible because of the latest rampage the Russian superstar has been on this month:
- 1+ goals in four straight games
- 11 goals in March (17 games)
Ovechkin has -115 odds to score, which seems reasonable based on his track record this season. He has scored in 55.0% of games (33 of 60), while the implied probability on this line is 53.5%.
It might be worth considering how Ovechkin wants to break the record, though.
He’s already made it clear he doesn’t want to score the 895th goal on an empty net. Would he be satisfied breaking the record on the road rather than in front of a home crowd?
That might be overthinking things a bit, but the Caps do play two of three at home after Sunday’s matchup on Long Island.
Assuming Ovechkin is in go-mode as long as a goalie is in the crease, the Islanders look like a good matchup for him.
In their past 25 games, the Isles have allowed the ninth-most goals per 60 (3.40) as well as the second-most xGA/60 (3.45), per Natural Stat Trick.
Ovechkin hasn’t had much recent success against New York, but he also hasn’t faced the division foe all year.
Key stat: Ovechkin has only scored in one of his past seven games against the Islanders (since January 2023).
Ovechkin goal odds: Method of the record-breaker
| Method | Odds |
| Even strength | -335 |
| Power play | +200 |
| Shorthanded | +5,000 |
| Doesn’t score No. 895 in ’24-25 regular season | +5,000 |
With six Washington Capitals games left on the schedule, it’s highly unlikely that Ovechkin finishes the year empty-handed.
And although he’s the NHL’s all-team leader in power-play goals (324), it’s fair to see his even strength odds sitting at a much shorter price.
After all, the grand majority of Ovi’s ice time will come at even strength. And only 12 of his 41 goals this season happened on the power play.
Record-breaking goal odds: Opposing team
| Team | Odds |
| New York Islanders | -200 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +300 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +350 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +4,000 |
| Doesn’t score No. 895 in ’24-25 regular season | +5,000 |
The Islanders are obvious favourites in this market, and not just because Ovechkin faces them on Sunday.
If he doesn’t score today, the winger will see New York again next Tuesday (April 15) back on Long Island.
There are three additional games between now and April 15, though: vs. Hurricanes, at Blue Jackets and vs. Blue Jackets.
Washington’s regular season finale, on April 17, is on the road against the Penguins. But it’s a long shot to think the record will remain unbroken by then.
Alex Ovechkin goal odds as of 9:10 a.m. on 04/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.