Two former Cy Young winners headline Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Jacob deGrom and Robbie Ray face a pair of strikeout-prone teams. I’m backing the former to work deep against the Tampa Bay Rays and the latter to clear his K total against the Seattle Mariners. Also, bet on Rafael Devers to score.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 5.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Ray over 6.5 Ks (-118)
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The San Francisco Giants are banking on Ray returning to elite form, and he’s looked solid so far.
Last year, after returning from Tommy John surgery, the lefty posted a 33.3% K rate and 36.0% whiff rate in 30.2 innings for San Francisco.
It’s a small sample, but both would have ranked above the 95th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
And in this year’s debut, Ray carried a perfect game into the sixth inning before giving up three hits — two of which were home runs — to the Cincinnati Reds.
He ended that contest with four Ks and 78 pitches, a respectable workload. With a slightly longer leash, I expect Ray to toy with a strikeout-prone Mariners squad on Saturday.
- Seattle had the fourth-highest K rate against LHP last year (25.5%).
- This year, the Mariners have the fifth-highest K rate against LHP (29.0%).
Key stat: Seattle has faced three left-handed pitchers this season. Tarik Skubal (5.1 IP, 8 Ks), JP Sears (6.2 IP, 7 Ks) and Jeffrey Springs (6.0 IP, 9 Ks) all cleared this number.
Best MLB picks
deGrom over 16.5 outs (-130): I picked deGrom to win the AL Cy Young this season, and you’re going to see me back him quite a bit this year on the prop market.
This line asks deGrom to record 5.2 IP, which isn’t much.
The fireballing righty was dominant in his season debut, throwing five scoreless innings against the Boston Red Sox with six strikeouts and two walks.
Texas probably doesn’t want deGrom working too late into ballgames just yet, but I think he can keep his pitch count low against the Rays.
Tampa Bay had a 24.6% K rate (fifth-highest) and 92 wRC+ (seventh-lowest) against righties last year.
Devers to score (+100): Devers started his season off by going 0-for-19 with 15 strikeouts in March.
It was a comically bad way to begin the year, but the three-time all-star has shaken things off, and I want in.
Devers is 5-for-11 in April with a .571 OBP. He’s scored three runs in his last two games and has a good chance to add another against St. Louis Cardinals righty Andre Pallante.
Pallante doesn’t surrender a ton of hard contact but ranked in the 14th percentile for K rate last season (18.5) and 29th percentile for walk rate (9.4).
I expect Devers to get aboard and his teammates to drive him home.
MLB prop picks made at 10:29 a.m. ET on 04/05/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.