Kevin Gausman has had issues in the past against the New York Mets’ lineup, and I’m fading him in Friday’s series opener at Citi Field.
The pregame narrative: Gausman’s primary nemesis is first-year Met Juan Soto, who’s featured in my best bet for tonight. I also like the under on Gausman’s strikeouts prop.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Mets for April 4.
Blue Jays picks vs. Mets
Best bet: Soto over 0.5 runs (-130)
I was really tempted to back Soto over 1.5 bases (+130). But his bat hasn’t really gotten going yet, and his tendency to draw walks is too high.
Though I don’t like making a habit of minus-odds run props, this one is perfectly palatable.
Just look at how well Soto has fared in his past experiences against Gausman:
- 8-for-15 (.533)
- 12 walks
- .741 OBP
- .867 SLG
As mentioned, Soto has been quiet on offence so far, batting 5-for-27 (.238) through six games. But he also has six walks and has reached safely in every matchup.
Though Soto leads the way, he isn’t the only Met who has thrived against Gausman. As a collective lineup, New York has a .319 BA and a .542 SLG against the righty in 97 plate appearances.
I love Soto’s chances of finding a way on base. He ranked in the 100th percentile in xBA and walk rate last year, per Baseball Savant.
From the No. 2 spot in the Mets’ order, there should be at least a couple of capable bats behind him who can get to Gausman and bring Soto around.
Key stat: As a Yankee, Soto scored a run in all four matchups against Gausman last year, reaching base 14 times in those games.
Prop predictions
Gausman under 5.5 Ks (-134): Gausman’s strikeout numbers plummeted last season, and that’s something to watch for in 2025.
Last year, Gausman had an 8.1 K/9 and a 21.4 K%. In each of the previous five seasons, he’d had at least a 10.0 K/9 and 25.3 K%.
It’s early, but the Mets don’t look like a team he’ll be able to rack up strikeouts against.
- NYM has the 9th-lowest K% in the majors (20.7).
- Opposing starters have gone under 5.5 Ks in 4 of 6 games vs. the Mets.
Gausman had four Ks in 6.0 innings against the Orioles in his season debut. Last year, he went under 5.5 Ks in 18 of 31 starts.
Blue Jays vs. Mets picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 04/04/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.