The second entrant into the March Madness national championship game comes down to Saturday’s matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and Houston Cougars.
The pregame narrative: In a battle of 1-seeds, it’s tough to find an edge. Instead of picking a side, I like the alt under between two elite defences. This +350 SGP also features props on Khaman Maluach and J’Wan Roberts.
Check out my Duke vs. Houston SGP predictions for their Final Four matchup on April 5.
Duke vs. Houston predictions
•BOOST: Duke -4.5, under 137.5 points, Flagg 20+ points (+633). Bet now
•BOOST: Florida ML, Clayton Jr. & Broome 20+ points each (+578). Bet now
Parlay: Under 140.5 points | Maluach over 7.5 points | Roberts 6+ rebounds (+350)
Under 140.5 points (-155): I already touted this pick in a different Final Four parlay, and I’m bullish enough on it to double down.
Among all 364 NCAA Division I schools, Duke and Houston rank No. 1 and 2, respectively, in opponent effective field goal percentage.
Houston is also No. 1 in scoring defence (58.3 points/game) while playing at the fifth-slowest pace in the country, per KenPom.com.
Since Feb. 15, 12 of Houston’s 14 games have gone under this total.
In last year’s NCAA tournament, Houston and Duke squared off in the Elite Eight — and the Blue Devils won a rock fight, 54-51.
Duke is a much different squad now, but Houston has four starters from that game back in action. I expect a slow pace in which two heavyweight foes take their time throwing punches.
BartTorvik.com projects just 129 points in Saturday’s game.
NCAA SGP legs
Maluach over 7.5 points (-177): Houston’s stout defence is built on feisty guard play — not elite size.
In fact, not a single player on the roster is taller than 6-foot-8. Size isn’t everything, but I do think the 7-foot-2 Maluach has an advantage the Blue Devils will want to exploit.
The South Sudan native has started all 38 of Duke’s games as a freshman, and he’s really been coming into his own in postseason play.
- 11.6 PPG
- 8+ points in 7 of 7 games
- 81.8 FG%
- 87.5 FT%
Gonzaga’s Graham Ike (6-foot-9) and Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-foot-9) both cruised past this number against Houston in previous tourney rounds.
Roberts 6+ rebounds (-210): Although Houston lacks size, someone on the Cougars will be bringing in rebounds. And Roberts is the man for the job.
- The fifth-year senior paces the team with 6.3 rebounds per game.
- He has 6+ rebounds in 22 of 35 games this season.
In the Elite Eight, Roberts only grabbed two boards. But he also only played 16 minutes, due to foul trouble plus the fact that it was a blowout.
Roberts typically plays 30-plus minutes, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities. He had eight rebounds against Duke in last year’s tournament.
Duke vs. Houston predictions made at 1:00 p.m. on 04/04/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.