I have two plays for Thursday’s light MLB slate, including an MLB prop pick on Canadian Josh Naylor.
The pregame narrative: Naylor is set up for a plus matchup at Yankee Stadium tonight. I also like southpaw Nick Lodolo to get his swing-and-miss stuff back on track.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 3.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+132)
The ball has been getting hammered at Yankee Stadium and there’s every reason to believe the Arizona Diamondbacks will do their part to keep that trend alive tonight.
New York is starting veteran Carlos Carrasco, who has been a punching bag the last two seasons.
- 41 starts
- 6.18 ERA
- 1.54 WHIP
- 1.72 HR/9 rate
This is a terrible spot for Carrasco to make his Yankee debut. Not only will he be pitching at home, but he’ll be facing the sixth-best offence, by wRC+.
Carrasco has been clobbered by hitters from both sides of the plate over that abysmal two-year stretch, but Naylor will enjoy the platoon advantage.
And the slugging first baseman handles right-handed pitching much better.
Naylor’s OPS vs. RHPs the last three seasons:
.800 | .852 | .856.
He’s swatted 56 of his 68 homers against righties since 2022.
The 27-year-old Canadian is coming off his first 30-homer season and has hit either cleanup or in the No. 5 spot for Arizona.
Hitting behind Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte makes Naylor’s RBI prop (+148) a viable play, too.
Key stat: Naylor’s career OPS is 125 points better vs. righties.
Best MLB picks
Lodolo over 5.5 Ks (-114): The Cincinnati Reds southpaw has a career 26.8 K% and has fanned batters at a well-above-average rate in each of his three seasons.
He worked six innings in his 2025 debut but came away with a disappointing one strikeout.
The 26-year-old will look for a bounce back tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have the fourth-highest K rate in MLB through six games.
Milwaukee, which didn’t undergo much roster turnover, struck out above the league-average rate in 2024.
Lodolo, who cleared this line in 12 of 21 starts last season, has shown a good ability to get batters from both sides of the plate out.
He ended spring strong, striking out 13 over his final two outings, and got up to 86 pitches in his season debut. All positives, as was his velocity, which was right in line with his 2024 average.
MLB prop picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET on 04/03/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.