The Final Four is coming this Saturday, and my favourite prop bet involves consensus No. 1 draft pick Cooper Flagg.
The pregame narrative: Flagg has been a stud for the Duke Blue Devils all season, but I’m taking the under on his point total against the Houston Cougars. Before that, bet on Florida’s Thomas Haugh and Will Richard.
Check out the best March Madness prop bets for April 5.
March Madness prop bets
•BOOST: Duke -4.5, under 137.5 points, Flagg 20+ points (+633). Bet now
•BOOST: Florida ML, Clayton Jr. & Broome 20+ points each (+578). Bet now
Best Bet: Flagg under 18.5 points (-117)
Fading the best player in the nation is risky, but I think it’s the right play.
- Flagg has only cleared this total in one tournament game, scoring 16, 30, 18 and 14 points.
- He is 2-8 against this line in his last 10 outings, excluding the ACC Tournament game he left early with an injury (though he was 1-for-7 from the field in 15 minutes before exiting).
I’m not saying Flagg has been playing poorly. He’s recorded 15-plus points in nine of those contests while shooting 49.6% from the field, so this will almost certainly be a sweat.
But I trust Houston to clamp down on Duke’s top dog.
The Cougars rank first in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency (87.4) and hold opponents to the fewest points per game (58.3).
- Houston held Purdue’s top scorer, Trey Kaufman-Renn, to 14 points on 5-of-12 shooting in the Sweet 16.
- It followed that up by holding Tennessee’s top scorer, Chaz Lanier, to 17 points on 4-of-18 shooting in the Elite Eight.
Key stat: Flagg is 1-5 against this line in his last six games against Quad 1 teams.
Final Four props
Haugh over 10.5 points (-132): Haugh is coming off the biggest game of his career, a 20-point effort against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Elite Eight.
Walter Clayton Jr. is going to lead the way for Florida, but I think there will be plenty of opportunity for the sophomore to chip in.
The 6-foot-9 forward has a dependable 3-point stroke (35.9%) and is a great free-throw shooter (81.0%). Auburn fouls at an inordinately high rate (18.4/game, 299th in D-1), so look for Haugh to do damage at the line.
Haugh is 8-2 against this line in his last 10 games.
Richard over 3.5 rebounds (-136): It might feel a little luck-based to back a guard on a rebounding line this low.
But Richard has been fairly consistent against this number since logging back-to-back 1-rebound outings on Feb. 11 and 15:
- 4.1 rebounds/game
- 3+ rebounds in 11/13 games
- 4+ rebounds in 7/13 games
The Auburn Tigers rank a pedestrian 162nd in offensive rebounding rate (29.5%), so look for Richard to pick up boards and lead the Gators in transition.
March Madness prop bets made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 04/03/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.