Eugenio Suarez is enjoying an early-season power surge, and I’m buying in for Wednesday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Suarez homered for the fifth time in as many games last night, and his price to merely collect a hit has my attention. I’m also backing Tarik Skubal in an A-plus matchup.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 2.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Skubal over 7.5 Ks (+120)
Skubal struggled in his season debut against the absolutely loaded Los Angeles Dodgers. Hey, it happens.
He’s staring down a much better matchup on Wednesday in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park against the swing-happy Seattle Mariners.
Last year, Skubal led the majors in strikeouts (228) en route to earning AL Cy Young honours. And his changeup deserves a lot of the credit.
- Skubal generated a 46.2% whiff rate on his changeup last year, per Baseball Savant. That was the second-highest whiff rate of any pitch in the majors.
- In a pair of starts against the Mariners, Skubal collected 19 whiffs on 32 swings when he threw the changeup. That’s a 59.4% whiff rate, which is frankly out of this world.
Skubal saw the Mariners in back-to-back turns through the rotation in August, and he dusted them both times.
On Aug. 7, he had nine Ks in 7.0 innings, allowing two runs on three hits.
Then on Aug. 13, he collected another nine Ks in 6.0 IP, allowing one run on three hits.
This matchup is made for Skubal to succeed, and I love the plus-money price on a very attainable Ks prop.
Since the start of last season, Seattle has the highest whiff rate on changeups thrown by lefties (38.0%).
Key stat: Skubal averaged 7.4 Ks in 31 regular season starts last year.
Best MLB picks
Suarez over 0.5 hits (-120): Suarez has five hits through five games. All of them have left the yard.
Yes, Arizona’s veteran slugger is 5-for-18 with five home runs. He took Mark Leiter deep in the eighth inning at Yankee Stadium last night.
Returning to the same homer-friendly park tonight, I think Suarez has a ton of value to cash this bet.
- Suarez is 2-for-5 with a double against Yankees starter Carlos Rodon.
- In his 12-year career, the right-handed Suarez has an .838 OPS against LHPs.
MLB prop picks made at 2:12 p.m. ET on 04/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.