With a sweep in play, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals for a Wednesday afternoon matchup.
The pregame narrative: It’ll be a bullpen game for the Jays, and I think Nats leadoff CJ Abrams will find a way to score. But my best bet is on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose plus-money bases prop is quite enticing.
Check out my Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks for April 2.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks
Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+123)
With the Jays off to a 4-2 start, you might think Guerrero would be mashing the baseball all over the yard. That hasn’t really been the case.
Well, he is still hitting lasers — including an unsustainable 70.6% hard-hit rate that is nearly double MLB’s average — but he hasn’t squared up a lot of pitches yet. That will come.
It would take a serious slump for me to steer clear of a plus-money bases prop on Vlad Jr. There’s just too much to like.
- Guerrero has 2+ bases in 38 of 69 games since last year’s all-star break.
- He finished the 2024 season in the 98th percentile for xSLG (.567) and the 100th percentile for xBA (.321), per Baseball Savant.
- Against Nationals starter Mackenzie Gore, Guerrero is 3-for-5 with a home run.
Guerrero is a serious threat against any pitcher, so today’s lefty-righty matchup isn’t an added bonus. But he did post a career-best .956 OPS against lefties last season.
Though Guerrero can blitz a fastball with the best of them, he might also be able to feast on one of Gore’s changeups.
In 2024, Vlad Jr. slugged .533 off changeups from left-handed pitchers.
Key stat: Guerrero went 2-for-2 with a home run when he last faced Gore (May 5, 2024).
Prop prediction
Abrams over 0.5 runs (+102): Abrams and the Nationals will see lefty reliever Easton Lucas as today’s opener for likely a couple of innings. After that, it’s anyone’s guess who will be on the rubber.
I’d like to see Abrams jump on Lucas early, even in a lefty-lefty matchup.
- Lucas wasn’t good last season, allowing 15 runs in 11.2 innings (10.80 ERA) across three clubs.
- Abrams has an .815 OPS against LHPs since the start of 2024.
Washington has already seen seven of Toronto’s nine relief arms, so there will be some familiarity once Lucas exits. That helps.
It also helps to know that Abrams has been the Nats’ best player this series.
The leadoff man is 4-for-8 with three extra-base hits and has scored in both games.
Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 04/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.