Tuesday’s 13-game MLB slate provides us with plenty of player prop options.
The pregame narrative: I’m going back to two players I recommended last night (Mike Trout, Fernando Tatis Jr.) and have a best bet on Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 1.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Mize over 4.5 Ks (-139)
It’s early, of course, but the Seattle Mariners’ 28.4 K% (fifth-highest in MLB) can’t be ignored.
Not after they had the highest K rate in MLB last season.
Mize was once a big name — the 2018 No. 1 overall pick — and he’s looking to become that again after working his way back to the big leagues last season.
The right-hander missed all of 2023 and was limited to two starts in 2022.
He made 22 appearances last season (20 starts) and was not overly impressive (below-average K rate, high walk rate, 4.49 ERA).
But he delivered above-average velocity and a strong groundball rate. And he was sensational this spring.
- 1.89 ERA in 6 appearances
- 1.00 WHIP
- 25 Ks in 19 IP
Take spring stats with a grain of salt, but reports had Mize flashing increased velo and his splitter (his top putaway pitch in 2024) got rave reviews.
At pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, this is about as soft a landing as you could ask for in a season debut.
Key stat: The Mariners are last in MLB in contact rate.
Best MLB picks
Trout over 1.5 total bases (+114): Trout has followed up a scorching spring (1.026 OPS, three homers) with next to nothing so far.
The three-time MVP has one hit (a single) and a .176 on-base percentage through four games. He’s 0-for-4 against this line.
Trout hasn’t been hitting the ball with authority, but he’s only struck out three times. And, like last night, he faces another pitcher that’s not a big bat missser. Trout will enjoy the platoon advantage, too.
Southpaw Matthew Liberatore gets the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals. The former first-round pick has a career 18.9 K% and 4.99 ERA.
Liberatore kept runs off the board in spring training but struggled to amass strikeouts. I like Trout’s chances to put the ball in play. At these odds, I’ll keep betting him on this market.
Tatis over 1.5 total bases (+108): The San Diego Padres stud enjoys a plus matchup tonight: Logan Allen of the Cleveland Guardians.
Allen was demolished by right-handed bats last season, and San Diego’s leadoff man is one of the best.
- Righties slashed .306/.377/.574 against Allen in 2024.
- 18 of his 22 homers were surrendered to RHBs.
While not as extreme, Allen had pronounced lefty/righty splits in his rookie 2023 season, too.
Allen entered last season with promise and is coming off a good spring. But plus money on this prop for a superstar hitter is excellent value to me.
Tatis has topped this in four of five games and enters Tuesday hitting .450 with a 1.150 OPS. He’s struck once in 22 plate appearances.
MLB prop picks made at 1:52 p.m. ET on 04/01/25.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.