I’ve got three prop bets for Monday’s eight-game NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: Anthony Davis is playing his way back from injury, and his recent results have me bullish on his points prop. Elsewhere, I have picks on Ja Morant and Keegan Murray.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 31.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Davis over 24.5 points (-106)
There’s a pretty big disclaimer to this pick and it’s that Davis hasn’t topped this total since returning from injury.
His high mark, over three games, is 18. That was in his last outing against the Chicago Bulls. But there are some positives to explore, too.
- Davis’ playing time has increased each game, leading to 30-plus minutes on Saturday.
- He’s attempted an average of 21 shots per game over the last two but is shooting a woeful 28.6% from the field.
I’d be a fool not to expect better efficiency in his upcoming games, and the Brooklyn Nets feel like the right matchup to get back on track.
The Nets have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the NBA (117.0). Brooklyn has been starting 6-foot-9, 185-pound Ziaire Williams at power forward. He’s there for his sharpshooting, not his defence.
AD should be able to find mismatches in the paint early and often.
Key stat: Davis is 25-17 against this line when playing more than 30 minutes this season.
Best NBA picks
Morant over 30.5 points/assists (-130): The athletic point guard has missed his fair share of time with injury this season.
But when he’s in the lineup, he’s been very productive.
Morant just recently missed six games and came back to immediately make an impact against the Los Angeles Lakers.
He played a full workload of 31 minutes, tallying 22 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists. He took a healthy 23 shots, which is great volume to work with.
Overall, his last 10 games have been excellent:
- 28.5 points
- 8.1 assists
- 4.2 rebounds
Morant shot above 50% in just two of those games. That demonstrates his ability to fill the statsheet when healthy, even with below-average shooting performances.
The Boston Celtics are an elite defensive team, but I can’t pass on this Morant prop.
Murray over 12.5 points (-130): Murray has been playing his best ball of the season and has a great matchup to do damage.
- The Indiana Pacers allow the fifth-most points per game to power forwards (24.02), per Fantasy Pros.
- Since the all-star break, Murray has averaged 14.1 points on 47.7% from the field and 40.9% from downtown.
That’s encouraging to see when over half of his shot attempts are from beyond the arc.
Over that 19-game sample, he’s 13-6 against this wager.
This game has the second-highest total of any contest tonight (234), so expect an uptick in volume for most players, including Murray.
NBA prop picks made at 12:04 p.m. ET on 03/31/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.