Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman and two position players make up Friday’s top MLB prop picks.
The pregame narrative: Gausman makes his 2025 debut and I like him to pitch well against the team that drafted him. I also have plays on Jurickson Profar and Alex Bregman.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Friday, March 28.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Profar over 0.5 runs (+125)
There’s big value here on Profar, who began his Atlanta Braves career with a 1-for-5 performance and three strikeouts.
He did cross the plate, though, and hit behind some serious mashers. Here’s how the Braves drew up their top-five lineup spots yesterday:
- No. 1: Profar
- No. 2: Austin Riley
- No. 3: Matt Olson
- No. 4: Marcell Ozuna
- No. 5: Ozzie Albies
Riley and Albies homered, and all five recorded a hit.
Profar is coming off the best season of his career (.280/.380/.459) with 24 homers and 94 runs scored.
While he never lived up to his super-hyped prospect billing, Profar has generally always had solid on-base skills, drawing walks at a well-above-average rate and posting a .354 OBP over the last two seasons.
Atlanta sees the San Diego Padres’ Dylan Cease, who has the stuff to shut down a lineup but can be his own worst enemy with free passes.
This is a dangerous Braves lineup, even down Ronald Acuna, that should find itself in hitter’s counts against the Padres right-hander.
Key stat: Atlanta drew six walks yesterday and was eighth in BB% in the second half last season.
Best MLB picks
Bregman 1+ RBI (+140): Bregman is used to hitting in production spots from his time in Houston and this season is no different in Boston.
The veteran third baseman hit third in his Red Sox debut, slotting behind Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers, two high-OBP guys who combined for 198 runs last season.
Duran’s 111 runs were eighth in the majors.
The Texas Rangers are starting Jack Leiter, who has struggled with control issues throughout his pro career.
I’m expecting baserunners and for Bregman to find himself in run-producing situations.
Leiter, one of the club’s top prospects, made the rotation thanks to injuries and a good spring. His second turn in a big league rotation comes after a forgettable 2024.
- Nine games (six starts)
- 8.83 ERA
- 1.71 WHIP
Gausman over 5.5 Ks (+115): From a velocity and feel-good standpoint, Gausman had a good spring.
All the right things were said following a down 2024 year that saw him lose ticks on his fastball and suffer a sharp decline in his strikeout rate.
He pitched through a shoulder issue and said his mechanics were out of whack. Gausman isn’t the first pitcher to experience that or chalk up a bad season to similar factors, but I’m buying into a bounce-back campaign.
In his first start, Gausman likely isn’t working too deep vs. the Baltimore Orioles, but I’m sure the Blue Jays would love five innings after using five relievers on Opening Day and playing seven straight days to begin the season.
I like his chances to get to this number with that workload, as Gausman was one of the elite strikeout arms ahead of last season.
- Gausman had the 11th-best K rate among qualified starters from 2021-23.
- Jose Berrios got punished yesterday, but still managed five Ks and 12 swinging strikes over five frames.
This is not a plus-money offering later in the season.
MLB prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 03/28/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.