Two SEC rivals battle in the Sweet 16 on Friday when the Kentucky Wildcats take on the Tennessee Volunteers.
The pregame narrative: Kentucky has had Tennessee’s number this year, and I expect to at least keep this one close. In addition to backing the Wildcats ATS, I’m taking prop bets on Amari Williams (Kentucky) and Zakai Zeigler (Tennessee).
Check out my Kentucky vs. Tennessee SGP predictions for their Sweet 16 matchup on March 28.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions
Parlay: Kentucky +8.5 | Williams 8+ rebounds | Zeigler 15+ points (+380)
Kentucky +8.5 (-210): I think the Wildcats are live to win this game and wouldn’t mind backing them on the moneyline at +163.
- Kentucky is 5-1 in its last six games vs. the Volunteers.
- Tennessee has failed to cover an -8.5 spread in six of its last eight Quad 1 games.
- The Wildcats are 8-4 ATS as an underdog this season (including two outright wins against Tennessee).
Tennessee’s offence is solid but relies heavily on the 3-point shot. The Vols take 43.3% of their shots from 3-point range (79th in D-I), and the Wildcats have held opponents to a 30.6% shooting from deep (24th in D-I).
Rick Barnes and Tennessee have only made one Elite Eight since the 2010-11 season. Granted, it was last year, but I can’t trust that body of work.
NCAA SGP legs
Williams 8+ rebounds (-139): Williams is poised to make his mark on Friday.
The 7-foot, 260-pound centre has nearly 30 pounds on anyone in Tennessee’s lineup and recorded 13 and 10 boards in his first two tournament games.
In his first meeting against the Vols this year, Williams hauled in 15 rebounds in 24 minutes. That was part of a seven-game stretch where he had 10-plus rebounds six times.
He only had three rebounds when they battled in Lexington, but was still a force:
Mark Pope should lean heavily on the senior transfer tonight.
Zeigler 15+ points (-167): This could be Zeigler’s last game with Tennessee, and I expect him to have a night.
The fourth-year senior has been a remarkably consistent scorer, which gives us a solid baseline to work with:
- 10+ PPG in three straight seasons
- 10+ points in 29 of 35 games this year
- 15+ points in 17 of 35 games this year
- 4-1 against this line in his last five
Zeigler scored 13 points in his first meeting with Kentucky this season while shooting 1-for-11 from deep. The next time they met, he scored 17 points and only attempted two 3s.
I’m hoping he tries to do damage from the inside tonight, where the Wildcats are more vulnerable.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions made at 12:30 p.m. on 03/28/25
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.