Thursday’s final Sweet 16 game takes place in San Francisco, when the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks battle the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The pregame narrative: John Calipari looks to advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2019, when he coached the Kentucky Wildcats. Will he do it? I’m not sure, but I am taking Arkansas to cover an alt spread alongside prop bets on Jonas Aidoo (Arkansas) and Darrion Williams (Texas Tech).
Check out my Arkansas vs. Texas Tech SGP predictions for their Sweet 16 matchup on March 27.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech predictions
Parlay: Arkansas +8.5 | Aidoo over 10.5 points | Williams over 13.5 points (+340)
Arkansas +8.5 (-190): Arkansas is a Cinderella story in seeding only, with Coach Cal bringing big-name recognition to a program featuring talent up and down the roster.
It took a while for the Razorbacks to get chugging, but they’ve hit their stride at the right time:
- Arkansas has won four of its last five games, all against Quad 1 opponents. The outlier was a three-point loss to Ole Miss, which is also in the Sweet 16.
- In that span, the Razorbacks are averaging 83.2 PPG. That’s what 1-seeded Duke has averaged across the whole season.
I’m also not quite sold on Texas Tech, which is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games as a favourite. The Red Raiders have also failed to cover an -8.5 spread in five of their last six Quad 1 games.
Tech takes 37.4% of its shots from beyond the arc (47th in D-1), and Arkansas holds opponents to a 31.6% 3-point percentage (59th in D-1).
NCAA SGP legs
Aidoo over 10.5 points (-115): This should be a breeze as long as Aidoo stays out of serious foul trouble, which is admittedly no guarantee.
- The 6-foot-11 forward has picked up 4+ fouls in 6 of his last 7 games, fouling out against Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament.
- But Aidoo still dropped 17 points against Ole Miss and is averaging 14.0 PPG in that seven-game stretch.
He was instrumental in Arkansas’ round one win over the Kansas Jayhawks, scoring 22 points while attempting 19 shots.
Calipari should lean heavily on Aidoo again versus an undersized Tech Tech team ranking 289th in average height. Only one of the Red Raiders’ starting five stands above 6-foot-6 (JT Toppin, 6-foot-9).
Williams over 13.5 points (-190): Williams was a force for Texas Tech in the second round, scoring a game-high 28 points in a blowout win over Drake.
He fell just shy of this line in the Round of 64, with 13 points on 5-of-15 shooting — but I love to see that type of volume.
The 6-foot-6 forward has big scoring upside and has gone over this line in 19 of 32 games. Being a career 38.5% three-point shooter certainly helps his cause.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech predictions made at 11:15 a.m. on 03/27/25
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.