The Miami Open reaches the quarterfinal stage and I have picks for two of the matches.
The pregame narrative: Novak Djokovic continues to defy time and play elite-level tennis. However, I believe Sebastian Korda can keep their contest close and am taking the over. On Thursday, tail Taylor Fritz at plus money in his match against Matteo Berrettini.
Check out my top Miami Open predictions for the quarterfinal matches on March 26-27.
Miami Open quarterfinal predictions
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Best Bet: Korda/Djokovic over 21.5 games (-132)
Korda has a knack for staying in matches. Only one of his four losses this year was in straight sets, against Gael Monfils (7-6, 7-6), and it still went over this low total.
Both of these players are great at holding serve. Korda has won 83% of his service games this year. That is a big reason for his ability to keep matches close.
On the other side, Djokovic has won 88% of his service games, meaning both should have a tough time winning breakpoints and pulling away.
The nice part about this line is that two close sets would still be enough to cash.
Key stat: These two have faced once in their careers, back in 2023. Djokovic won a very close match (6-7, 7-6, 6-4), reaching 36 total games.
Men’s quarterfinal tennis pick
Fritz -1.5 sets (+145): These are nice odds for Fritz, who has dominated this head-to-head matchup.
He’s 4-0 against Berrettini, winning the last three matches in straight sets. That includes their most recent contest at the 2024 US Open, where Fritz won three sets to zero.
The American lost his first-ever set against Berrettini and won the next nine sets leading into this matchup.
Fritz is also the better player, ranking No. 4 on tour with a 13-5 record this year. Berrettini is 9-6 and has played almost an hour more of tennis at the Miami Open so far.
The Italian has never been great on outdoor hardcourts, going 25-21 on the surface since the start of 2023.
Fritz has been much better, holding a record of 70-24 on the surface during that same timeframe.
Miami Open predictions made at 11:03 a.m. on 03/26/25
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.