It’s been a chalky March Madness so far, but two underdogs feature in this +303 Sweet 16 parlay.
The pregame narrative: The Michigan Wolverines and Kentucky Wildcats have thrived in underdog roles this season and are solid targets to tease up ATS. I’m still backing one favourite, though, as I expect the Duke Blue Devils to continue rolling.
Check out my March Madness parlay predictions for the Sweet 16.
March Madness parlay predictions
Parlay: Duke -5.5 | Michigan +10.5 | Kentucky +7.5 (+303)
Duke -5.5 (-143): All of Durham held its breath, or perhaps more likely screamed in agony, when Cooper Flagg exited the ACC tournament in a wheelchair.
But that was seemingly precautionary, and the Oscar Robertson Trophy winner has looked just fine in Duke’s two tournament games:
- First round vs. Mount St. Mary’s: 14 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists
- Second round vs. Baylor: 18 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists
When Flagg is in the lineup, beating the Blue Devils seems like an impossible task. Duke is 26-1 since Dec. 1 and has covered a -5.5 spread in all but one of those victories.
The No. 4 Arizona Wildcats are no pushovers, but I struggle to see them scoring on the inside.
Arizona takes 53.5% of its shots from 2-point range (67th in NCAA Division I), and Duke holds opponents to a 43.1 FG% inside the arc (second in D-I), per KenPom.
College basketball parlay picks
Michigan +10.5 (-190): Michigan’s season was looking very unspectacular, until it wasn’t.
After losing to their rival Michigan State Spartans to close out the regular season, the then-No. 22 Wolverines went on a Big Ten championship run, beating the Purdue Boilermakers, Maryland Terrapins and Wisconsin Badgers in the process.
Dusty May’s group has kept the good times rolling, most recently beating the No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies behind Roddy Gayle’s 21 second-half points.
Michigan is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season, while the Auburn Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favourite.
Kentucky +7.5 (-182): The Tennessee Volunteers faithful must be shaking in their cowboy boots right now. Kentucky has already beaten Tennessee twice this season and is primed to deliver a season-sweeping kill shot.
- The Wildcats are 5-1 in their last six games vs. the Volunteers.
- Kentucky is 8-4 ATS as an underdog this season, which includes two outright wins against Tennessee.
- Tennessee takes 43.3% of its shots from 3-point range (79th in D-I) and Kentucky holds opponents to a 30.6 3PT% (24th in D-I).
Last season, Rick Barnes guided the Vols to the Elite Eight for the first time since the 2010-11 season. Considering the program’s status and funding, that’s meant to be an insult, not a compliment.
Tennessee has decent minutes continuity from last year (36.2%, 164th in D-1), and that’s noteworthy. But I’m banking on Barnes’ long-standing pedigree as a choke artist.
March Madness parlay predictions made at 12:35 p.m. ET 03/25/2025
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.