The Toronto Maple Leafs host the downtrodden Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Philadelphia has lost 10 of its last 11 games and is a prime candidate for Toronto to pounce on as the Leafs look to secure the Atlantic Division. I’m backing Auston Matthews to score and am fading Matvei Michkov.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flyers for March 25.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flyers
Best Bet: Matthews to score (-108)
Anything short of a win would be unacceptable for the Maple Leafs coming off a blown two-goal lead against the Nashville Predators on Saturday.
Philadelphia (28-35-9, 28th place in NHL) got shelled on Sunday, 7-3, by the Chicago Blackhawks of all teams and has its eyes on the golf course with 10 games to play.
Matthews has begun to look like his old self, and I expect him to lead from the front. Check out the captain’s numbers over the last five games:
- 4 goals
- 7 points
- 21 shots (team-high)
- 39 chances (team-high)
- 19.05% shooting percentage
Matthews’ SH% in that span is notably greater than his season-long average (12.2%).
Samuel Ersson seems the likely candidate to start in goal for the Flyers with backup Ivan Fedotov giving up a seven-spot on Sunday — and it’s not like he’s been reliable.
Ersson ranks 40th in goals against average (3.00) and 50th in save percentage (.886).
Key stat: Matthews has six goals in his last six games against the Flyers, cashing this bet four times.
Quick pick
Michkov to not record a point (-134): Philadelphia’s goaltending has been awful, but its offence has also grown anemic at the worst time. That’s a pretty solid recipe for losing 10 of 11 games.
The Flyers are averaging 1.72 goals during this stretch, and Michkov has gone pointless in six of his last eight.
The Russian winger did put up two assists against the Blackhawks on Sunday, but Chicago is one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL.
Toronto has elite goaltending with Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz operating in tandem, and its defensive lynchpin, Chris Tanev, is back in the lineup.
I expect a frenzied defensive effort from the Maple Leafs tonight after Saturday’s embarrassment.
Maple Leafs vs. Flyers prop picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 03/25/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.