After a full weekend of March Madness, the NBA is back in the spotlight on Monday night with an eight-game slate.
The pregame narrative: I’ve got prop bets from three of tonight’s matchups, including a plus-money play on Luka Doncic. I also expect solid performances from Nikola Vucevic and Naji Marshall.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 24.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Vucevic over 9.5 rebounds (-120)
The Denver Nuggets are among the best rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking second in rebounding rate (52.0%) and sixth in opponent rebounds allowed (42.4/game).
But a key absence on the Nuggets’ side makes Vucevic a solid candidate to hit this rebounding milestone.
Denver head coach Michael Malone told reporters that Nikola Jokic, who’s missed four straight games with an ankle injury, is unlikely to play on Monday.
Given that Jokic averages 12.8 rebounds — and the next highest on the team is Michael Porter Jr. at 7.0 RPG — there should be plenty of vacated rebounds up for grabs … literally.
Vucevic averages 10.1 RPG, so this milestone is right in line with expectations.
And when he faced the Nuggets back in January, with a healthy Jokic on the floor, the Bulls’ big man grabbed 10 boards as part of a 20-point double-double.
Chicago and Denver both play at a frenetic pace, ranking third and sixth, respectively, in possessions per game.
With the prospect of an up-tempo game that doesn’t involve Jokic, I’m all over this prop for Vucevic.
Key stat: Vucevic has 10-plus rebounds in 41 of 63 games (65.1%) this season.
Best NBA picks
Doncic over 3.5 threes (+105): Remember that slow start to Doncic’s tenure with the Los Angeles Lakers? Yeah, that’s long gone.
When Doncic debuted for the Lakers in February, he wasn’t just acclimating to a new team. He was also getting his legs back under him after a six-week injury absence.
But February woes have given way to March wows:
- February (7 games): 21.0 PPG, 2.0 threes (8.3 attempts), 24.1 3PT%
- March (10 games): 31.1 PPG, 4.7 threes (11.0 attempts), 42.7 3PT%
The Orlando Magic have faced the fewest 3-point attempts per game this season (31.2), but Doncic is a volume shooter against everyone. While playing for Dallas earlier this season, he went 5-of-13 from deep against Orlando.
Also, the Magic struggle to defend the perimeter from an efficiency standpoint. They allow the sixth-highest 3PT% (36.8).
Marshall over 17.5 points (-118): A depleted Mavericks squad has put Naji Marshall into a starting role — and he’s thriving.
- In his past nine games (all starts), Marshall is averaging 22.7 PPG.
- He has 18+ points in nine of his past 10 games.
The fifth-year small forward isn’t much of a 3-point threat, but he doesn’t have to be against tonight’s opponent, the Brooklyn Nets.
Marshall ranks in the 89th percentile in mid-range shooting frequency and accuracy, per Cleaning the Glass. The Nets, meanwhile, allow the 10th-highest FG% on mid-range shots.
NBA prop picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 03/24/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.