Pac-12 loyalists, avert your eyes. In their debut seasons with new conferences, the 5-seed Oregon Ducks face the 4-seed Arizona Wildcats in the NCAA tournament.
The pregame narrative: I can’t decide which ATS side I prefer, so I’ll roll with the under on an alt total instead. To round out this +320 SGP, I’m looking for fairly modest offensive contributions from T.J. Bamba (Oregon) and Caleb Love (Arizona).
Check out my Oregon vs. Arizona SGP predictions for their second-round matchup on March 23.
Oregon vs. Arizona predictions
Parlay: Under 155.5 points | Bamba 10+ points | Love 2+ threes (+320)
Under 155.5 points (-155): Oregon is cashing tons of unders lately, and I’m content to ride the wave.
- Unders are 8-1 in the Ducks’ past nine games — including all three postseason games.
- The average total in Oregon’s past nine games is 141.7 points.
- The Ducks also tend to play more defence-first basketball when the quality of opponent is high. In their 15 Quad 1 games, they hit this under nine times.
Coming off back-to-back unders, Arizona should be up for a low-scoring tussle. Unders were 13-8 in the Wildcats’ Quad 1 matchups this year.
These longtime conference foes most recently met in last year’s Pac-12 tournament, and they combined for just 126 points.
Neither team is exactly what it used to be, mind you, but they’re both in the top 150 in NCAA Division I in minutes continuity, per KenPom.com.
NCAA SGP legs
Bamba 10+ points (-162): For a third straight year — on his third different team — Bamba is averaging north of 10.0 PPG.
He’s not much of a 3-point scoring threat, but the 6-foot-5 wing has enough size to make a difference inside. The fifth-year player is also a respectable free throw shooter (76.1% in his career).
Though he only had six points in Oregon’s first-round win, it’s important to note he played about six minutes fewer than normal due to the lopsided nature of the game.
Prior to Friday, Bamba had cashed this bet in 11 of his previous 15 games, averaging 11.4 PPG in that span.
Love 2+ threes (-375): Love averages 7.7 attempted 3s, which is more than twice the total of any of his teammates (Anthony Dell’Orso is second with 3.2 3PA).
With such high volume, asking for a pair of triples from Love should be a cinch. And the veteran guard is making it look that way.
- 2+ threes in 8 of 9 since Feb. 22
- 41.8 3PT% since Feb. 22
- 2+ threes in 24 of 35 this year
In three games against Oregon last year, Love shot 9-for-24 (37.5%) from deep. I’ll take that kind of volume all day.
Oregon vs. Arizona predictions made at 1:00 p.m. on 03/23/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.