The two-time reigning champion UConn Huskies kick off their tournament against the Oklahoma Sooners.
The pregame narrative: It’s been a tough year for Dan Hurley’s Huskies and I expect the Sooners to keep this game close, if not win. Prop bets on Oklahoma’s Jalon Moore and UConn’s Liam McNeeley round out this +270 wager.
Check out my UConn vs. Oklahoma SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 21.
UConn vs. Oklahoma predictions
Parlay: Oklahoma +9.5 | Moore 10+ points | McNeeley 15+ points (+270)
Oklahoma +9.5 (-200): There’s a chance I look incredibly stupid betting against the back-to-back champs but I just can’t see UConn winning by a large margin tonight.
The Huskies are 10-15-1 ATS when favoured this season and have struggled to beat good opponents handily.
- UConn is 6-6 in Quad 1 games and has failed to cover a -9.5 spread in each of those victories, according to BBall.net.
- Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 7-11 in Quad games and has covered a +9.5 spread in 11 of those contests.
I would also venture to say the Sooners are peaking at the right time. OU is 4-3 in its last seven games with the three losses coming by a combined five points. And all but one of those games were against Quad 1 opponents.
UConn’s defence struggles to defend the 3-point line (35.1 opponent 3PT%, 257th in D-1) and is undisciplined (18.0 fouls/game, 269th in D-1).
Oklahoma’s offence ranks 34th in 3PT% (37.0) and eighth in FT% (79.4), and those are two areas where I expect it to thrive.
NCAA SGP legs
Moore 10+ points (-182): Moore seems like a solid candidate to expose those defensive weaknesses.
- Moore is averaging 16.0 PPG while shooting 39.1% from deep.
- He’s shooting 83.5% from the line and is averaging 5.0 free-throw attempts per game.
The senior forward has reached this 10-point milestone in 30 of 33 games this season with all three outliers being games where he played 26 or fewer minutes.
Porter Moser is going to need his veteran to play big minutes in this one and I say Moore answers the bell.
McNeeley 15+ points (-215): Now let’s back one of UConn’s forwards to clear a point milestone.
The Sooners have a great 3-point defence but struggle to defend the interior and don’t block a lot of shots.
McNeely — the Big East Freshman of the Year — has become a mainstay in Hurley’s lineup and went on a nice run to close out the season.
He averaged 15.4 PPG in his last 15 games while taking a healthy 13.3 shots, most of which came from inside the 3-point line.
UConn vs. Oklahoma predictions made at 12:00 p.m. on 03/21/25
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.