I’m backing three players to do damage during Friday’s March Madness slate.
The pregame narrative: Florida has taken a top seed largely thanks to the play of Walter Clayton Jr. and I expect the first-team All-American guard to shine. I also have wagers on Oregon’s Nate Bittle and New Mexico’s Nelly Junior Joseph.
Check out the best March Madness prop bets for March 21.
March Madness prop bets
Best bet: Bittle 8+ rebounds (-113)
I can’t really wrap my head around this line.
Bittle is playing his best basketball at the right time and has a massive size advantage over everyone else in this game.
The 7-foot senior is the only player listed above 6-foot-9 on either team outside of Kai Yu, a freshman on the No. 12 Liberty Flames who has played a total of 45 minutes this season.
Liberty’s biggest weakness is on the glass, and I expect Bittle to feast.
- The Flames rank 298th in D-1 in rebounding rate, according to TeamRankings.
- They also rank 347th in average height, per KenPom, with no starters or rotational players standing above 6-foot-8.
Bittle is coming off an 11-rebound performance in the Big Ten tournament against a Michigan State Spartans team which ranks third in rebounding rate — now imagine what he can do against the undersized Flames.
Orgeon’s centre has gone over this in three straight, logging double-digit boards twice.
Key stat: Bittle has 7+ rebounds in eight of his last nine games, clearing this mark five times.
Best March Madness picks
Clayton 20+ points (+120): In my opinion, the biggest risk to this wager is a blowout where Clayton doesn’t play big minutes.
But we haven’t seen Todd Golden rest his star much all season and I don’t see why it would happen now.
Clayton is averaging 32.4 minutes per game and has only played sub-30 minutes in six of 32 games this season. He’s made good use of that playing time, averaging a team-high 17.5 PPG.
The guard has scored 20 points in four of his last five games against much tougher opponents than the 16-seeded Norfolk State Spartans.
Norfolk State ranks 213th in adjusted defensive efficiency and should get walked over on Friday.
In college, I like to see players who shoot 3s efficiently and make their free throws. Clayton does both well, shooting 37.7% from deep and 85.7% at the line.
Joseph 15+ points (+112): The 10-seeded New Mexico Lobos and 7-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles seem destined for a dog fight, and Joseph should be at the centre of it.
The fifth-year senior is averaging 14.0 PPG this season and almost exclusively does his damage in the paint.
At 6-foot-10, 245 pounds, Joseph is built like an old-school bruiser with a modern scoring touch.
Marquette ranks 199th in 2-point defence (51.3%) and 241st in rebounding rate (48.8%). As long as Joseph stays out of foul trouble, I like him to score and clean up on second chances.
March Madness prop bets made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 03/21/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.