Among the four late-night March Madness matchups on Friday, I’ve got picks from three of them in this +260 parlay.
The pregame narrative: The UConn Huskies aren’t as heralded as in recent years, but I don’t expect a one-and-done showing from the two-time defending champs. I’ve got UConn to win, plus an alt total involving the Michigan State Spartans and an alt spread for the Liberty Flames.
Check out my March Madness parlay predictions for NCAA basketball action on March 21.
March Madness parlay predictions
Parlay: UConn ML | Bryant/Michigan State u155.5 points | Liberty +9.5 (+260)
UConn moneyline (-239): After back-to-back national championships, is No. 8 UConn really going to bow out in the first round?
I don’t buy it.
Dan Hurley’s squad couldn’t crack St. John’s, but it otherwise handled its business in a strong Big East conference. During the non-conference slate, the Huskies picked up wins over three tournament teams (Gonzaga, Baylor and Texas).
UConn is 4-2 against Quad 1-A opponents, per BartTorvik.com. The Oklahoma Sooners are just 4-10 against Quad 1-A foes.
Oklahoma played in the toughest conference in the country, the SEC, but it didn’t exactly set the world on fire. A “quality loss” is a term SEC football fans love to throw around, but I won’t apply it to basketball.
College basketball parlay picks
Bryant/Michigan State under 155.5 points (-163): Unders are hot for the No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs, and I expect that trend to continue against No. 2 Michigan State.
- Unders are 8-3 in Bryant’s past 11 games.
- Unders are 22-11 in Michigan State games this season (tied for the ninth-highest rate in NCAA Division I).
- Both the Bulldogs and Spartans rank in the top 50 in effective field goal rate on defence … and they both rank outside the top 150 in eFG% on offence.
This under has cashed in nine of MSU’s past 10 games.
Bryant plays at the seventh-fastest pace in D-I, and a high-event game is definitely the biggest risk for this pick.
But quantity doesn’t guarantee quality, and I expect Michigan State’s defence — No. 5 in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.com — to put the clamps on.
Liberty +9.5 (-175): There are only two D-I teams that rank in the top 10 in eFG% on offence and defence. One of them is Duke, and the other one is Liberty.
I’m less fixated on No. 12 Liberty’s defensive success, given that most of its games came against good-not-great Conference USA opponents.
But I do respect how effectively Liberty can fill the net.
- 2nd in eFG%
- 5th in 3PT%
- 14th in 2PT%
I don’t have a lot of bad things to say about the No. 5 Oregon Ducks, but I struggle to boast about them, either. Oregon is 105th in eFG% on offence and 91st in eFG% on defence.
Lacking any elite traits, I don’t expect Oregon to run away with this one.
KenPom projects a four-point win for Oregon, while Bart Torvik projects the Ducks to win by two.
March Madness parlay predictions made at 3:45 p.m. ET 03/20/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.