Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers face the Colorado State Rams in first-round March Madness action on Friday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: No. 5 Memphis is a slight underdog, and I’m banking a few extra points with the Tigers in this +290 SGP. I also have prop bets on Nique Clifford (Colorado State) and Dain Dainja (Memphis).
Check out my Colorado State vs. Memphis SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 21.
Colorado State vs. Memphis predictions
Parlay: Memphis +4.5 | Clifford 20+ points | Dainja 8+ rebounds (+290)
Memphis +4.5 (-177): It’s exceedingly rare to see a 5-seed positioned as an underdog against a 12-seed. I’m sure Memphis feels the disrespect.
I’m not expecting Memphis to simply roll over, especially because the Tigers have been at their best in their biggest games this season.
- Memphis is 6-1 in Quad 1 games. Colorado State, by comparison, is just 3-5 in Quad 1 games.
- Memphis is 16-1 since Jan. 19 — and its own loss came on the road in overtime.
The Rams are a talented bunch, winning 10 straight games en route to a Mountain West tournament title. But Colorado State didn’t punch up against quality foes as well as Memphis did, and that matters in tourney time.
Memphis is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year, per Team Rankings.
NCAA SGP legs
Clifford 20+ points (-182): Clifford paced the MWC in effective field goal percentage this season (58.0%) and is coming off a stellar conference tournament run.
Here’s what the fifth-year senior did in three conference tourney games:
- 25.0 PPG
- 24+ points in 3 of 3 games
- 50.0 FG%
- 43.8 3PT%
Clifford has now cashed this bet in 13 of his past 17 games, averaging 21.4 PPG. His 51.3/45.8/80.0 shooting splits in that span are absurd.
I like that Clifford is an elite free-throw shooter who gets to the line at a solid clip. He’s averaging 6.4 free throw attempts in his past 11 games.
Memphis allows the 97th-most free throws per game (20.4), so that could be a pathway to production for Clifford if his shooting cools off at all.
Dainja 8+ rebounds (-215): Dainja’s season rebounding average is a bit under this mark (7.2 RPG), but he’s only been a starter for about half the year.
After starting for Memphis early on, Dainja was moved to the bench. But he returned to the starting lineup in late January and never looked back.
- Starter (18 games): 29.7 minutes/game, 8.1 rebounds/game
- Reserve (16 games): 23.4 minutes/game, 6.3 rebounds/game
The 6-foot-9 transfer from Illinois has cashed this bet in 11 of 18 matchups as a starter.
Colorado State has one of the worst offensive rebounding rates in NCAA Division I (26.4%, 279th in D-I), so Dainja should do damage on the defensive glass.
Colorado State vs. Memphis predictions made at 3:20 p.m. on 03/20/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.