The Toronto Maple Leafs head to the Big Apple for a game against the middling New York Rangers.
The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews is finding his scoring touch at the right time as the NHL playoffs approach. I’m backing the Leafs’ captain to pot another goal on Thursday and former captain John Tavares to find his way onto the scoresheet.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers for March 20.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers
Best Bet: Matthews to score (-105)
There’s no chance Matthews will match his 69-goal production from last season, but the centreman is shaping into form at the right time of the season.
- He has scored in three consecutive games.
- He has points in 11/13 games since the midseason break.
- He had 7 goals and 8 assists during that span.
And this is the matchup to stay hot in. In their first nine games of the season, the Rangers looked primed to repeat as Presidents’ Trophy winners. They allowed just 21 goals in those contests (2.33/game).
When the calendar flipped to November, the wheels started to fall off. In the 60 games since, New York has allowed 3.08 goals per game. That would rank in the bottom 10 of the NHL over the full season.
The side also allows the fifth-most shots against per game (30.0), and that’s exactly what I want to see when backing Matthews.
Key stat: Matthews takes the fourth most shots per game (4.06) and has points in five straight games vs. the Rangers, including five goals.
Quick pick
Tavares to record 1+ points (-130): Tavares continues to reclaim the hearts of Leafs fans with a bounce-back season.
After notching 65 points in 80 games in 2023-24, most expected another decline from the 34-year-old vet.
But that hasn’t been the case as Tavares is producing at a near-point-per-game pace with 57 in 61 games.
He’s been wildly consistent as well, recording at least a point in 41 of 61 games played (67.2% hit rate). Considering these odds have an implied probability of 57.3%, I’d say this pick has strong value.
Tavares will continue to benefit from playing with Toronto’s top forwards and I like his prospects of getting on the scoresheet against a vulnerable Rangers team.
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers prop picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET 03/20/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.