A big-time coaching battle unfolds in the first round when John Calipari and the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks battle Bill Self and the No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks.
The pregame narrative: Calipari snuck into the dance in his first year with Arkansas and I think his team is poised to author an upset. Just to be safe, take the Razorbacks to cover an alt spread in this +325 parlay featuring a prop bet on Zeke Mayo.
Check out my Arkansas vs. Kansas SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 20.
Arkansas vs. Kansas predictions
Parlay: Arkansas +7.5 | Under 149.5 points | Mayo 2+ threes (+325)
Arkansas +7.5 (-165): Arkansas may be the lower seed — and the underdog — but I would argue it’s in better form than Kansas.
- The Razorbacks are 9-6 in their last 15 games, covering a +7.5 spread 13 times. That includes wins over Kentucky, Missouri and Mississippi State, as well as a four-point loss to Alabama.
- The Jayhawks are 8-7 in their last 15 games, covering a -7.5 spread just three times.
Kansas has lost six of its last seven Quad 1 games outright, beating the Arizona Wildcats by seven points in the outlier.
Arkansas, meanwhile, has covered a +7.5 spread in six of its last seven Quad 1 games (3-4 record).
NCAA SGP legs
Under 149.5 points (-175): I expect this to be a rock fight, which will hopefully work in Arkansas’ favour for covering and potentially winning this outright.
Check out how each team stacks up defensively, with stats provided by KenPom:
- Arkansas: 18th in defensive efficiency, 60th in opponent eFG%
- Kansas: 11th in defensive efficiency, 15th in opponent eFG%
Unders are 18-9 in games where Kansas is favoured and 10-1 in its non-conference games, according to Team Rankings.
Mayo 2+ threes (-278): This leg doubles our parlays value from +163 to +325 thanks to some negative correlation.
And I love to see that, considering Mayo has blown by this mark in three straight games:
- March 13 vs. Arizona: 5-for-12
- March 12 vs. UCF: 5-for-7
- March 8 vs. Arizona: 5-for-7
The San Diego State transfer has averaged at least 2.6 threes per game in each of the last three seasons and is a career 39.5% shooter from beyond the arc.
Mayo paces all Jayhawks in 3-point attempts (6.2/game) by a wide margin.
Arkansas vs. Kansas predictions made at 9:45 a.m. on 03/20/25
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.