March Madness is an opportunity for anonymous heroes to emerge, and I’m targeting four players to show up big in Thursday’s first round.
The pregame narrative: Bennett Stirtz has done it all for the Drake Bulldogs this year, and he’s got a nice price to continue leading the charge for them offensively. I also have prop milestone predictions on Silas Demary Jr. (Georgia), Nick Townsend (Yale) and Harlan Obioha (UNC Wilmington).
Check out the best March Madness prop bets for March 20.
March Madness prop bets
Best bet: Stirtz 20+ points (+128)
I like No. 11 Drake to pull off an upset over the No. 6 Missouri Tigers, and if that has any chance of happening, Stirtz will need to come up big.
- Stirtz leads NCAA Division I in minutes per game (39.3) and paced the Missouri Vally Conference in scoring (19.1 points/game).
- He takes nearly twice as many shots as anyone else on the Bulldogs (13.3 FGA; the next highest is 7.4 FGA).
- Stirtz has efficient shooting splits (49.3/38.6/79.5), which justifies his high shot volume.
Stirtz is a junior, but this is his first season at the D-I level. He spent the past two seasons as a star for D-II Northwest Missouri, before following coach Ben McCollum to Drake this year.
The Missouri native now faces the Missouri Tigers, who might try to turn this game into a track meet.
Mizzou plays at the 55th-fastest offensive pace in D-I, per KenPom.com, while Drake plays at the slowest pace in the country (364th). If the Tigers can liven up the pace, that should just result in more shots for Stirtz.
Key stat: In his past 13 games, Stirtz is averaging 21.3 PPG and has cashed this bet 10 times.
Best March Madness picks
Demary 3+ threes (+135): For a guy who’s only canning 1.8 threes per game, this might seem like a bit of a reach.
But Demary’s 3-point shot volume is way up right now, and I think that could continue for No. 9 Georgia’s matchup against the No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Here’s what Demary has accomplished from the 3-point line in his past 10 games:
- 6+ attempts in 9 games
- 2+ makes in 10
- 38.2 3PT% on 7.6 attempts
Demary cashed this prop in five of those 10 matchups, but he was a threat to do it every time.
Gonzaga allows 24.4 attempted 3s per game, which ranks 79th in D-I.
Obioha 6+ rebounds (-117): UNC Wilmington was a successful rebounding-by-committee squad this year, ranking 24th in rebounds per game despite no players averaging 7.0 RPG or more.
Obioha is, quite literally, at the centre of the Seahawks’ success.
- The 7-foot centre averages 5.9 rebounds per game.
- He has 6+ rebounds in 5 of his past 6 matchups.
- On the season, Obioha has 5+ rebounds in 21 of 34 games.
The Niagara transfer is especially active on the offensive glass with a 14.7% rebounding rate (24th in D-I, per KenPom.com).
Although the 14th-seeded Seahawks are expected to go down against the No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders, I don’t expect Obioha to get pushed around.
He’ll be the tallest player on the court Thursday, and at 280 pounds, he is 55 pounds heavier than anyone on the Red Raiders’ side.
Townsend 25+ points/rebounds/assists (+110): The No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies are scrappy, but that scrappiness leads to plenty of fouls. With that in mind, I think Townsend should be a force for the No. 13 Yale Bulldogs.
Townsend is a 6-foot-7, 250-pound forward who shoots well from the free-throw line (76.3%). He’s also a stat-stuffer across the board.
- On the season, Townsend is averaging 15.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists (26.2 PRA).
- He has 25+ PRA in 13 of 19 games since Dec. 20.
Texas A&M is an elite rebounding team, but none of its rotation players are taller than 6-foot-9. And the squad ranks 317th in offensive effective field goal rate.
Look for Townsend to grab some boards and be a focal point for Yale’s offence.
March Madness prop bets made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 03/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.