One ATS pick, one player prop and one over/under bet make up Thursday’s March Madness best bets.
The pregame narrative: In a battle of Bulldogs, back No. 8 Gonzaga to cover as favourites against No. 9 Georgia. I’m also backing Purdue’s Fletcher Loyer to clear his 3-point total and St. John’s to go under its game total.
Check out my March Madness best bets for NCAA college basketball action on March 20.
March Madness best bets
Best bet: Gonzaga -6.5 (-109)
Will the real Bulldogs please stand up?
The main argument for backing Georgia would be that it closed out conference play strong and carried a four-game winning streak into the SEC tournament.
But that doesn’t paper over an inconsistent season, or the fact that it had lost eight of 11 prior to going on that win streak, or its 4-11 record in Quad 1 games.
In my opinion, Mike White’s squad is severely outmatched by perennial powerhouse Gonzaga.
Mark Few has guided his Bulldogs to six straight Sweet 16s and has a stellar 43-24 record in the D-1 tournament — and this year’s squad is capable of going just as deep.
- Gonzaga owns a 25-8 record (5-5 in Quad 1 games).
- It is 9-1 in its last 10 games, covering a 6.5-point spread in every victory.
- The Bulldogs rank top 30 in KenPom’s average adjusted offensive efficiency, average adjusted defensive efficiency and effective FG%.
One big area where Gonzaga can separate from Georgia is turnover margin. Few’s bunch turns the ball over at the fifth-lowest rate (13.2%) while White’s team ranks 293rd (18.9%).
I expect an experienced Gonzaga lineup to make Georgia pay for those errors.
Ket stat: Gonzaga is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
NCAA college basketball picks
Loyer 2+ threes (-134): Loyer is coming off a horrible 0-for-6 shooting performance against the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten tournament.
In that game, Loyer suffered a minor elbow injury on his non-shooting arm but Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter says he’s “good to go” on Thursday.
The guard was a big part of Purdue’s run to the national championship last year, shooting 47.4% from deep across six tournament games.
This year, Loyer is averaging 2.1 threes per game on 46.4% shooting. He had cleared this mark in nine of 10 games prior to playing Michigan.
Look for Loyer to do damage against the 13-seeded High Point Panthers.
Nebraska Omaha/St. John’s under 148 points (-113): Rick Pitino is back in the tournament and his 2-seeded Red Storm are threats to win it all.
St. John’s ranks first in adjusted defensive efficiency and 19th in opponent EFG%. It’ll be tough for anyone to score on this bunch, let alone little Nebraska Omaha
A rout in this game is the likely outcome for the Red Storm, who open this tournament as an 18.5-point favourite on Thursday.
But everything about this match screams “rock fight” to me.
St. John’s ranks 338th in 3-point percentage and 295th in FT% — two ways to quickly accumulate points.
Unders are 19-15 in Red Storm games this year.
March Madness best bets made at 1:45 p.m. ET 03/19/2025
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.