The last spot in the NCAA Round of 64 is up for grabs on Wednesday night when the Texas Longhorns play the Xavier Musketeers.
The pregame narrative: The Longhorns sputtered down the home stretch but I like them to cover as teased-up underdogs tonight. Prop bets on Texas’ Kadin Shedrick and Xaviers’ Ryan Conwell round out this +425 wager.
Check out my Xavier vs. Texas SGP predictions for their First Four matchup on March 19.
Xavier vs. Texas predictions
Parlay: Texas +5.5 | Shedrick 6+ rebounds | Conwell 3+ threes (+425)
Texas +5.5 (-175): There is a reason both teams are playing on Wednesday night rather than resting up for the Round of 64 — neither is that good.
Texas (19-15, 6-12 SEC) and Xavier (21-11, 13-7 Big East) had very different results in conference play but the SEC received 14 at-large bids and is widely regarded as the deepest conference in college basketball.
And funnily enough, it’s the Longhorns who have a much better record against Quad 1 opponents:
- Texas: 7-10 in Quad 1 games
- Xavier: 1-9 in Quad 1 games
Texas has won four of its last six Quad 1 games outright, covering a +5.5 spread in one of the outliers. The other game was a nine-point loss in the SEC tournament to the Tennessee Volunteers.
Xavier and Texas are evenly matched on offence and rank second and 21st, respectively, in D-1 experience, per KenPom.
This should be tightly contested but I’ll give the Longhorns a slight edge.
NCAA SGP legs
Shedrick 6+ rebounds (-125): One edge Texas has over Xavier is size.
The Longhorns are the 64th tallest team in D-1 while the Musketeers rank 166th. Enter Shedrick, who stands at 6-foot-11, two inches taller than any other starter in this game.
The 231-pound senior will be the largest man on the court and has been rebounding well lately. Check out Shedrick’s stats since posting a dud against the Florida Gators on Jan. 18
- 5+ rebounds in 13 of 16 games
- 6+ rebounds in 10 of 16 games
Shedrick had six boards his last time out against the Volunteers and is averaging 6.1 on the season.
Look for him to have an above-average showing against a Xavier team which ranks 316th in offensive rebounding rate.
Conwell 3+ threes (-143): Xavier’s point guard has been on fire from deep, shooting 24-for-41 (58.5%) over his last five games.
He’s hit three-plus 3s in each game and just went 7-for-11 against the Marquette Golden Eagles.
There’s a good chance he goes nuclear again tonight.
Conwell has two-plus 3s in eight straight games and 26 of 32 on the season, which is a superb baseline to work with.
Xavier vs. Texas predictions made at 11:30 a.m. on 03/19/25
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.