The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: I’m rolling with Toronto’s top goalscorer and taking William Nylander to find the back of the net. For the Avalanche, I’m siding with the over on Artturi Lehkonen’s shots prop.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Avalanche for March 19.
Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Avalanche
Best Bet: Nylander to score (+155)
While the Leafs continue to shuffle line combinations, one thing stays consistent — Nylander’s ability to pot goals.
- He leads Toronto with 38 goals in 67 games.
- He has four goals in eight games since March 1.
Auston Matthews missed 15 games with an injury, but his 0.50 goals per game still falls short of Nylander’s 0.57.
Considering Matthews is +102 to score, I’d rather side with Nylander at a much juicier price.
Colorado is a tough matchup, no doubt, but it has a worse record on the road (18-14-1) than at home (23-10-2).
The Avs rely more on offence than defence and allow 2.87 goals per game. That ranks closer to the middle of the pack than the top.
When these two teams met on March 8, Nylander had two points in a 7-4 win for Colorado. Another explosion of offence is very possible tonight and the Swedish winger is bound to be in the mix.
Key stat: Nylander has five points in his last two games vs. the Avs.
Quick pick
Lehkonen over 1.5 shots (-143): First of all, this bet has an implied probability of 58.85%, even though Lehkonen has cashed this wager in 67.86% of games this season (38 of 56).
It would be concerning if Toronto was good at limiting chances, but the opposite can be said.
The Leafs allow the eighth most shots per game (29.1) and are slowly losing their newly formed identity as a good defence.
Lehkonen plays on the first line and second power play and averages 20:55 of ice time.
He’ll be out there plenty and only needs a couple of shots on goal for this prop to cash.
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche prop picks made at 9:18 a.m. ET 03/19/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.