The PGA Tour heads to Innisbrook Resort for the Valspar Championship.
The latest: Rory McIlroy beat out J.J. Spaun to win the Players in an electric Monday playoff. He’s not playing this week but several big names headline the Valspar field, including favourite Tommy Fleetwood and two-time major champ Xander Schauffele. Sepp Straka is my best bet to win.
Check out my Valspar Championship predictions for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on March 19.
Valspar Championship predictions
Go to full Valspar Championship betting markets.
Best bet: Straka to win (+1,600) & top-20 finish (+110)
Straka might not have the name value of Schauffele or Jordan Spieth but he’s playing better than both of them right now.
- Straka has seven top-15 finishes in nine starts this season.
- That includes a win at the American Express and a T14 finish at the Players Championship last week.
- He ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach (+0.933) this season.
Straka is an elite ball striker with an above-average short game, which will play well at Innisbrook. The Copperhead Course places a premium on iron play — ranking eighth out of 52 courses for how much SG: APP correlates to success, according to RickRunGood.com.
The Austrian also has the benefit of playing the AM/PM tee-time draw, with heavy winds expected to arrive around 12:00 p.m. ET on Thursday and sustain until 12:00 p.m. ET the following day.
A +1,600 price tag might seem unsavoury, but Straka has earned this level of respect.
Key stat: Straka ranks second in SG: total (+1.488) in this field in 2025.
PGA picks
Kim to win (+3,300) & top-20 finish (+163): This seems like an excellent bounce-back spot for Michael Kim, who missed the cut on the number last week at TPC Sawgrass.
The 31-year-old has been on an absolute heater since February, finishing inside the top 15 in five straight starts leading up to the Players Championship.
That includes a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open and a fourth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Kim is picking up strokes through his bag, gaining most heavily on approach and around-the-greens. That’s the kind of stat profile I want to see at Innisbrook.
Knapp to win (+6,000) & top-20 finish (+275): How can you not bet on a guy with a swing like this?
Well, sometimes that swing has produced some really ugly results. But Jake Knapp is in great form right now, finishing T12 at the Players Championship after a T6 at the Cognizant Classic.
He’s only missed one cut all season and has picked up strokes on approach in six straight starts.
Knapp can bomb it off the tee, too, and I’m hoping he uses that to his advantage by clubbing down and finding fairways at this tree-lined venue.
Suber top-40 finish (+335): This is what you call “taking a flier.”
I’ve backed Jackson Suber a few times this year and he hasn’t come through yet, but the rookie is playing on the optimal side of the draw and has been a consistently strong iron player.
Suber finished T6 in his first PGA Tour event this season after a strong run on the Korn Ferry Tour.
I doubt he can win this thing at 200-to-1, but love the value on a top-40 finish at +335.
Valspar Championship predictions made at 9:30 a.m. on 03/19/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.