Do the North Carolina Tar Heels belong in March Madness? We’ll find out Tuesday night when they face the San Diego State Aztecs in First Four play-in action.
The pregame narrative: UNC was arguably the most lenient addition to the 68-team field after putting up a shaky regular season resume. I’m riding with San Diego State on an alt spread while backing RJ Davis and Nick Boyd in the prop market.
Check out my North Carolina vs. San Diego State SGP predictions for their First Four college basketball matchup on March 18.
North Carolina vs. San Diego State predictions
Parlay: SDSU +7.5 | Davis over 16.5 points | Boyd over 1.5 threes (+475)
San Diego State +7.5 (-182): I backed the Aztecs at +4.5 in one of my First Four best bets for Tuesday, so let’s kick off this SGP by banking a few extra points.
North Carolina is 8-2 in its past 10 games, and both losses in that span came against Duke. Sounds nice, right?
Sure, except that it illustrates the Tar Heels’ smoke-and-mirrors record this season. UNC is 22-13 overall, but just 1-12 in Quad 1 matchups.
San Diego State is a Quad 1-calibre foe with an elite defence, ranking first in block rate (18.5%) and sixth in effective field goal percentage (45.3%).
Also, the Aztecs are 3-6 in Quad 1 matchups — including wins over Houston and Creighton.
Both KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com project a two-point victory for UNC tonight.
NCAA SGP legs
Davis 15+ points (-106): Tuesday could be Davis’ last game in Carolina blue. I expect him to play with plenty of urgency.
Davis is the focal point of UNC’s offence, leading the team in every notable volume stat:
- PPG (17.8)
- FGA (13.3)
- 3PA (6.5)
He also plays a team-high 34.4 minutes per night. So again, it’s fair to expect him to leave it all out on the floor.
The fifth-year senior has seen plenty of highs and lows in his career as a Tar Heel. With an 18.2 PPG scoring average over the past three seasons, he’s proven to be a reliable offensive asset many times over.
Since the 2022-23 season, Davis has cashed this milestone in 74 of 105 games (70.5%).
Boyd 2+ threes (-130): Two years ago, Boyd torched San Diego State in a Final Four matchup by shooting 4-for-7 from deep as a member of the Florida Atlantic Owls.
Now he’s the Aztecs’ leading scorer, looking to ride a hot streak from 3-point range to lift SDSU back into the Round of 64.
- Boyd has 2+ threes in 5 of his past 6 games, with a 48.4 3PT% in that span.
- Boyd has 2+ threes in 17 of 30 games this season.
The Tar Heels play at the 34th-fastest adjusted tempo, per KenPom, so Boyd could get additional looks if they push the pace.
North Carolina vs. San Diego State predictions made at 11:00 a.m. on 03/18/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.