Play-in action marches on with another First Four college basketball doubleheader on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: The Xavier Musketeers battle the Texas Longhorns for a spot in the Round of 64. I’m expecting plenty of offence and I also have a play for the American Eagles vs. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers game.
Check out my NCAA First Four picks for the March 19 tournament games.
NCAA First Four picks
Best Bet: Xavier/Texas over 149 points (-125)
This looks like an evenly matched game between two teams that should produce offence.
- Xavier and Texas rank sixth and 66th, respectively, in offensive 3-point percentage. They both shoot 35.9% or better from deep.
- Both teams rank in the top third of NCAA Division I in average offensive possession length. Xavier plays particularly fast, ranking 46th in offensive possession length (16.4 seconds).
Neither team shoots an overwhelming number of 3s, but they both excel from beyond the arc. If one side gets hot, the other might be encouraged to start firing more from deep.
This game features solid star power, including Texas guard Tre Johnson. The projected lottery pick led the SEC in scoring (19.8 PPG) en route to earning SEC Freshman of the Year honours.
Xavier is led by Zach Freemantle (17.3 PPG) and Ryan Conwell (16.8 PPG). Conwell is on a blazing pace right now, shooting 53.8% from 3-point land over his past seven games.
If the Musketeers’ shooting goes cold, they should be able to find offence from the free-throw line.
Texas has allowed the 35th-most free throws in D-I this year, and Xavier owns the eighth-best FT% in the country (79.4).
Key stat: In their past 10 games, Xavier is 7-3 to the over and Texas is 9-1.
March Madness prediction
American over 65.5 points (-120): This bet will almost certainly come down to whether or not the Eagles make their 3s — because it’s a safe bet that Mount St. Mary’s will let them shoot plenty.
The Mountaineers allow the 17th-most attempted 3s per game (27.0), and deep shooting is the best part of what the Eagles do offensively.
American shoots 35.1% from long range, which is 103rd in D-I. The Eagles average a hearty 24.2 attempted 3s per game.
Because American plays at one of the most sluggish paces in the country, it isn’t a high-scoring team.
But the Eagles still average 68.6 PPG. They’ve cleared this line in four straight and in 23 of 34 games this season.
NCAA First Four picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 03/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.