On Thursday, the 2025 March Madness college basketball tournament will be underway in full force.
The pregame narrative: This +309 parlay has plays on three evening matchups from the 16-game slate. I’m taking the under on an alternative total when the Arkansas Razorbacks face the Kansas Jayhawks, and I also have recommendations on the No. 11 Drake Bulldogs and No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons.
Check out my March Madness parlay predictions for NCAA basketball action on March 20.
March Madness parlay predictions
Parlay: Arkansas/Kansas u148.5 pts | Drake +9.5 | UC San Diego +5.5 (+309)
Arkansas/Kansas under 148.5 points (-155): This game has by far the most coaching clout of any first-round tilt, and I expect it to be a defence-first chess match.
Bill Self and John Calipari’s squads are both stronger on the defensive side, per KenPom.com:
- Kansas: 11th in defensive efficiency, 48th in offensive efficiency
- Arkansas: 20th in defensive efficiency, 73rd in offensive efficiency
The Jayhawks and Razorbacks also both hit unders more often than overs. Combined, unders are 39-27 (59.1%) in their games this season.
When Kansas is favoured, unders are 18-9. And the Jayhawks have gone under this total in 19 of 33 games on the year.
College basketball parlay picks
Drake +9.5 (-177): The Bulldogs are one of my favourite first-round upset picks. So let’s give them a bunch of points, shall we?
The Bulldogs’ roster is a who’s who of non-NCAA Division I transfers, including three players who came over from D-II Northwest Missouri State with first-year coach Ben McCollum.
And they sure seem to be gelling, as Drake has posted an 18-1 record since Jan. 8 — and the lone blemish was a two-point loss more than a month ago.
The Missouri Tigers stumbled to a 2-5 record down the stretch. Coming out of the SEC, they’re a battle-tested bunch… but a blowout win is far from a sure thing.
Mizzou has only covered this number in 16 of 33 games.
UC San Diego +5.5 (-175): Like Drake, I’ve tabbed UC San Diego as an upset team to watch.
But the Tritons (+2.5) are hardly underdogs against the 5-seed Michigan Wolverines, so I’d prefer to give them a bit more cushion.
After winning the Big Ten tournament, Michigan got a raw deal from the selection committee. The Wolverines had to travel west from Indianapolis to Denver for a matchup on the first day of the Round of 64.
The team waiting for them is a matchup nightmare, too.
- UC San Diego is riding the longest win streak in NCAA Division I (15 games).
- The Tritons own the best turnover margin in the country (+7.3/game). They forced the 8th-most turnovers and allowed the 2nd-fewest.
- Michigan has a major turnover problem. The Wolverines committed the 23rd-most and had a -2.7 average turnover margin.
To top it off, USCD has the best ATS record in D-I (25-7-0).
March Madness parlay predictions made at 1:45 p.m. ET 03/18/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.